Tools Designed to Analyze the Enterprise Economic Risk and its Usefulness for Forecasting and Managerial Control

C. Mihalciuc
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引用次数: 1

Abstract

Risk is a challenge for any enterprise, because at the time when we identify the risk, it cannot be totally canceled, being assumed different depending on the different attitude. Thus, in the study of risk analysis, it is appreciated that, essentially, there are two categories of variables that cause the greatest sensitivity of the result indicators: the cost structure, being considered the main cause of the economic risk, and the financial structure of the enterprise, which has the potential to determine the financial risk. The size of the operating risk is conditioned by the enterprise's ability to efficiently manage the cost structure and to take into account the fact that it develops unequal sensitivity to activity level variations because some expenditure vary (proportionally or non-proportionally) to the volume of activity, being categorized as variable costs, and another category of expenditure is low or almost of insignificant variability depending on the volume of activity variation, being considered as fixed or structure expenditure, these costs lead to a decrease in enterprise flexibility as they do not have the property to adapt when the volume of activity is changing. Based on these considerations, in the methodological approach of this paper we considered the way of determining the economic risk for two economic entities, which operate in the same geographical area, having the same object of activity, through the instrumentation used in cost-volume analysis, this model of analysis is also a useful tool for forecasting and managerial control.
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企业经济风险分析工具及其对预测和管理控制的用处
风险对任何一个企业来说都是一个挑战,因为在我们识别风险的时候,它是不可能被完全消除的,因为不同的态度会承担不同的风险。因此,在风险分析的研究中,我们认识到,实质上有两类变量对结果指标的敏感性最大:成本结构,被认为是经济风险的主要原因;以及企业的财务结构,它具有决定财务风险的潜力。经营风险的大小取决于企业有效管理成本结构的能力,并考虑到企业对活动水平变化的不平等敏感性,因为一些支出与活动量成比例或不成比例地变化,被归类为可变成本,而另一类支出的可变性很低或几乎不显著,这取决于活动量的变化。这些成本被视为固定或结构性支出,导致企业灵活性下降,因为它们不具备适应活动量变化的属性。基于这些考虑,在本文的方法学方法中,我们考虑了确定在同一地理区域运营的两个经济实体的经济风险的方法,具有相同的活动对象,通过成本-数量分析中使用的仪器,这种分析模型也是预测和管理控制的有用工具。
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