The Application of Improved Bayesian Method in Reliability Evaluation

Abstract

Aiming at the problem that the traditional reliability method with small failure samples cannot accurately calculate the reliability, this paper makes full use of existing information and expert information, etc. Based on the combination of prior information and constrained no prior information, the improved Bayesian method is used to establish reliability. Sexual analysis model. First, a weighted fusion method is used to establish a joint prior distribution that combines prior information with constrained and no prior information according to the credibility of the prior information to the posterior information. At the same time, the robustness of the joint prior distribution is analyzed; The prior distribution is combined with the posterior information to calculate the posterior distribution form of the distribution parameter, and the distribution parameter value and the mean time between failures are calculated.