L. Harmon, Matthew W. Pennell, L. F. Henao-Diaz, J. Rolland, Breanna Sipley, J. Uyeda
{"title":"Causes and Consequences of Apparent Timescaling Across All Estimated Evolutionary Rates","authors":"L. Harmon, Matthew W. Pennell, L. F. Henao-Diaz, J. Rolland, Breanna Sipley, J. Uyeda","doi":"10.1146/annurev-ecolsys-011921-023644","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"Evolutionary rates play a central role in connecting micro- and macroevolution. All evolutionary rate estimates, including rates of molecular evolution, trait evolution, and lineage diversification, share a similar scaling pattern with time: The highest rates are those measured over the shortest time interval. This creates a disconnect between micro- and macroevolution, although the pattern is the opposite of what some might expect: Patterns of change over short timescales predict that evolution has tremendous potential to create variation and that potential is barely tapped by macroevolution. In this review, we discuss this shared scaling pattern across evolutionary rates. We break down possible explanations for scaling into two categories, estimation error and model misspecification, and discuss how both apply to each type of rate. We also discuss the consequences of this ubiquitous pattern, which can lead to unexpected results when comparing rates over different timescales. Finally, after addressing purely statistical concerns, we explore a few possibilities for a shared unifying explanation across the three types of rates that results from a failure to fully understand and account for how biological processes scale over time. Expected final online publication date for the Annual Review of Ecology, Evolution, and Systematics, Volume 52 is November 2021. Please see http://www.annualreviews.org/page/journal/pubdates for revised estimates.","PeriodicalId":7988,"journal":{"name":"Annual Review of Ecology, Evolution, and Systematics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":11.2000,"publicationDate":"2021-09-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"14","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Annual Review of Ecology, Evolution, and Systematics","FirstCategoryId":"99","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-ecolsys-011921-023644","RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"生物学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"ECOLOGY","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 14
Abstract
Evolutionary rates play a central role in connecting micro- and macroevolution. All evolutionary rate estimates, including rates of molecular evolution, trait evolution, and lineage diversification, share a similar scaling pattern with time: The highest rates are those measured over the shortest time interval. This creates a disconnect between micro- and macroevolution, although the pattern is the opposite of what some might expect: Patterns of change over short timescales predict that evolution has tremendous potential to create variation and that potential is barely tapped by macroevolution. In this review, we discuss this shared scaling pattern across evolutionary rates. We break down possible explanations for scaling into two categories, estimation error and model misspecification, and discuss how both apply to each type of rate. We also discuss the consequences of this ubiquitous pattern, which can lead to unexpected results when comparing rates over different timescales. Finally, after addressing purely statistical concerns, we explore a few possibilities for a shared unifying explanation across the three types of rates that results from a failure to fully understand and account for how biological processes scale over time. Expected final online publication date for the Annual Review of Ecology, Evolution, and Systematics, Volume 52 is November 2021. Please see http://www.annualreviews.org/page/journal/pubdates for revised estimates.
期刊介绍:
The Annual Review of Ecology, Evolution, and Systematics is a scholarly publication that has been in circulation since 1970. It focuses on important advancements in the areas of ecology, evolutionary biology, and systematics, with relevance to all forms of life on Earth. The journal features essay reviews that encompass various topics such as phylogeny, speciation, molecular evolution, behavior, evolutionary physiology, population dynamics, ecosystem processes, and applications in invasion biology, conservation, and environmental management. Recently, the current volume of the journal transitioned from a subscription-based model to open access through the Annual Reviews' Subscribe to Open program. Consequently, all articles published in the current volume are now available under a CC BY license.