Criteria for identifying maximum rainfall determined by the peaks-over-threshold (POT) method under the Polish Atlas of Rainfall Intensities (PANDa) project

E. Burszta-Adamiak, P. Licznar, Janus Zaleski
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引用次数: 12

Abstract

Determination of rainfall maxima from long-term series is one of the more important tasks in urban hydrology. These maxima are useful both in designing land drainage systems and for flood protection in a catchment. The identification of rainfall maxima for the hierarchy of rainfall durations from 5 min to 4 320 min is a fundamental stage of the creation of the first version of the Polish Atlas of Rainfall Intensities (PANDa), which will ultimately be a source of updated and reliable information on design rainfall intensities for designing and modeling rainwater drainage and retention systems in Poland. One of the methods for identifying extreme rainfall events is to use criteria for selecting rainfall based on their depth for a given rainfall frequency and duration. Existing national experience in this respect is based on the results of analyses usually conducted with regard to records from single weather stations. This article presents the results of a study designed to verify the usefulness of the literature-based criteria for identifying rainfall maxima using the peaks-over-threshold (POT) method at a much broader nationwide scale. The study analyzed data from a previously created digital database of rainfall series, which includes 3 000 stationyears (consisting of a 30-year measurement series from 100 weather stations of the Institute of Meteorology and the Water Management – National Research Institute (IMGW-PIB). The study results show that as far as the investigated measurement series are concerned, the criteria based on the literature sources have limited application and can only be used for identifying the largest short-duration rainfall events. To determine rainfall maxima for all of the time intervals analyzed (from 5 minutes to 3 days), it was necessary to develop our own criteria that would allow the methodology for identifying extreme rainfall events to be standardized for all 100 stations.
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波兰降雨强度地图集(PANDa)项目下的峰值超过阈值(POT)方法确定最大降雨量的标准
从长期序列中确定雨量最大值是城市水文学的重要任务之一。这些最大值在设计土地排水系统和集水区防洪时都很有用。确定从5分钟到4 320分钟的降雨持续时间等级的最大降雨量是创建波兰降雨强度地图集(PANDa)第一版的基本阶段,该地图集最终将成为波兰雨水排水和保留系统设计和建模的最新和可靠的设计降雨强度信息来源。识别极端降雨事件的方法之一是根据给定降雨频率和持续时间的深度使用标准来选择降雨。在这方面现有的国家经验是根据通常对单个气象站的记录进行的分析结果。本文介绍了一项研究的结果,该研究旨在验证基于文献的标准在更广泛的全国范围内使用峰值超过阈值(POT)方法识别降雨量最大值的有效性。该研究分析了以前创建的降雨系列数字数据库的数据,该数据库包括3000个站年(由气象研究所和水管理-国家研究所(IMGW-PIB)的100个气象站的30年测量序列组成)。研究结果表明,就所调查的测量序列而言,基于文献来源的准则应用有限,只能用于识别最大的短持续时间降雨事件。为了确定所分析的所有时间间隔(从5分钟到3天)的最大降雨量,有必要制定我们自己的标准,以便为所有100个站点标准化识别极端降雨事件的方法。
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