Assessing the impact of climate change on discharge in the Horyn River basin by analyzing precipitation and temperature data

Abstract

It is important to investigate the hydrological consequences of current climate change. Hydrological responses to climate warming and wetter conditions include changes in discharge (frequency, amplitude, and volume). This paper describes current climate change and its impact on hydrological flow within the Horyn River basin. Daily air temperature and precipitation data obtained from the 17 meteorological stations located in and nearby the Horyn River basin, in combination with hydrological data (such as daily water discharges obtained from 9 water gauges), were used for the analysis of climate variability and its hydrological consequences. Analyses of meteorological variables and water discharges are crucial for the assessment of long-term changes in the river regime. Thiessen polygons were used to determine the area of influence of assigned specific meteorological stations, which affect the river ’ s catchments within the Horyn River basin. As a result of the trend analysis, it was observed that discharge within the Horyn River basin decreased over time. These results were congruent with the trends of precipitation data and air temperature data of the stations determined by the Thiessen polygons and basin boundaries. To understand current changes in the daily flow in the basin, changes in air temperature and precipitation for the period 1991-2020 were compared with the period of the climatic norm (1961-1990). A similar analysis was done for daily water discharges. Increasing air temperature and decreasing precipitation in the current period led to a significant decrease in discharges in the Horyn River basin, especially during the spring flood period.