Tugging on Superman’s Cape: Why Some Insurgencies Are Targets of Foreign Militaries

IF 1.2 3区 社会学 Q2 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Studies in Conflict & Terrorism Pub Date : 2021-07-13 DOI:10.1080/1057610X.2021.1930863
Victor Asal, Joseph K. Young, Nakissa Jahanbani, Suzanne Weedon Levy
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Abstract

Abstract Why do foreign militaries attack some insurgencies and not others? Although foreign involvement in civil conflicts is on the rise, many insurgencies are not targeted militarily by external powers. Current research suggests organizations that are lethal or that attack democracies should be targeted more often. We argue that organizations that have vital markers of capabilities, such as alliances with other violent non-state actors (VNSAs) and territorial control, and the ability to attack members of a powerful country, in this case, U.S. citizens at home or abroad, are more likely to be targeted. Our empirical analysis supports this contention: we use a logistic regression model and, in post-estimation, predicted probabilities and a Classification and Regression Tree (CART) model to understand the effect of potential factors on international military interventions.
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拽超人的斗篷:为什么一些叛乱是外国军队的目标
为什么外国军队只打击一些暴乱而不打击其他暴乱?尽管外国对国内冲突的介入正在增加,但许多叛乱并不是外部力量的军事目标。目前的研究表明,那些致命的或攻击民主国家的组织应该更频繁地成为攻击目标。我们认为,具有重要能力标志的组织,例如与其他暴力非国家行为体(VNSAs)结盟和领土控制,以及攻击强大国家成员的能力,在这种情况下,是国内或国外的美国公民,更有可能成为目标。我们的实证分析支持这一论点:我们使用逻辑回归模型,并在后估计中预测概率和分类回归树(CART)模型来理解潜在因素对国际军事干预的影响。
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来源期刊
CiteScore
5.40
自引率
10.00%
发文量
75
期刊介绍: Terrorism and insurgency are now the dominant forms of conflict in the world today. Fuelled by moribund peace processes, ethnic and religious strife, disputes over natural resources, and transnational organized crime, these longstanding security challenges have become even more violent and intractable: posing new threats to international peace and stability. Studies in Conflict and Terrorism aims to cast new light on the origins and implications of conflict in the 21st Century and to illuminate new approaches and solutions to countering the growth and escalation of contemporary sub-state violence.
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