Coal Consumption and As Emission in Electricity Generation in China under Different Energy Scenarios

Yan Sha, Zhang Quan
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Abstract

This paper presents coal consumption of electricity generation in China under different energy scenarios of the given long-term energy policies. Long Range Energy Alternatives Planning 2008(LEAP 2008) software is used to develop a simple model of electricity demand and to estimate gross coal consumption of electricity generation in China until2030 under these scenarios. And, time-serial emission inventory of As is also built in the method of emission factors based on fuel consumptions. The results show that the coal consumption will increase by 4 times, amounting to 5.92 billiontces under BAU scenario. The total emission of As is 20.7Mtces with an average annual growth rate of 6.6%. UnderENR scenario, the total reduction of coal consumption and Asemission may reach 25.89% and 26.82% respectively compared to that in BAU scenario.
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不同能源情景下中国发电煤耗与碳排放
本文分析了在既定长期能源政策下,中国不同能源情景下的燃煤发电消耗情况。使用“2008年长期能源替代规划”(LEAP 2008)软件开发了一个简单的电力需求模型,并在这些情景下估计了中国到2030年的发电总煤炭消耗。并采用基于油耗的排放因子法建立了As的时间序列排放清单。结果表明,在BAU情景下,煤炭消费量将增加4倍,达到59.2亿立方米。As的总排放量为20.7 mtce,年均增长率为6.6%。在enr情景下,与BAU情景相比,煤炭消费总量和碳排放总量可分别减少25.89%和26.82%。
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