Determinants of demographic aging in the Republic of Serbia

Abstract

The aging of the population represents one of the dominant characteristics of the demographic development of Serbia in the second half of the 20th century. The aging process was especially intensified during the last decade of the last century, which resulted in the fact that the population of Serbia today is among the oldest in the world. The main cause of population aging is the declining and low fertility and negative migration balance of the young and younger middle-aged population. Demographic aging is a comprehensive process that has affected all municipalities, districts and regions of the country and takes place simultaneously from the top of the age pyramid (increasing the share of the old population) and from the base of the age pyramid (decrease in the share of youth). A clear spatial polarization of demographic age has been established within the Republic of Serbia. On the one hand, there are large cities that have improved the age structure and raised fertility rates through immigration, while on the other hand, there are depopulated municipalities of eastern and southern Serbia and the municipalities of the inner city core of Belgrade. During the first half of the 21st century, a continuation of low fertility and a further decrease in mortality are expected, which will lead to an increase in life expectancy. The depopulation tendencies could be stopped only due to a sudden increase in fertility and a positive migration balance. The aging process will be continuous and continue to be very intense. The aging of the elderly will be especially pronounced. The contingent of the population over 80 years old will increase significantly and will represent a quarter of the total number of old people. All of the above points to a seriously deteriorated age structure, which further leads to an imbalance in the relationship between the able-bodied and dependent part of the population, primarily the elderly. The effects will be reflected on the financing of social programs related to the elderly population, that is, on the pension and health systems.