TRANSFORMATION OF POLITICAL MODES IN THE CONDITIONS OF GEOPOLITICAL TURBULENCE

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Abstract

The article analyzes the key factors, trends and prospects for the transformation of political regimes in the context of transition to a polycentric world order. Geopolitical uncertainties are causing significant apprehension among elite and scientists at the beginning new era. This is due to some change in the hegemony of the world powers. The nature of hegemony, changing world order received special attention in the twentieth century and remains in the focus of researches to this day I Wallerstein stressed that the hegemonic states must be powerful to receive the benefits of its status. «Unipolar order» in world politics has turned out to be dysfunctional in terms of ensuring global prosperity and security, promoting democratic practices, and strengthening world order and stability across all regions. Destabilization of the entire world order is due to aggravating internal political divisions and confrontations in the USA and in the countries of the European Union. Processes of reforming new geopolitical coalitions have provided geopolitical turbulence. Turbulent world of international relations and politics is characterized by two overarching trends: (1) the supersession of geopolitics by geoeconomics; (2) mutations of the international security which is increasingly shifting from the interstate level to security threats the growing importance and intensity of conflicts between different value systems and ideologies, in particular between integrationist (such as democracy and human rights) and particularistic ideologies (such as nationalism or religious fundamentalism). Confrontation of the processes of Westernization and Easternization means the weakening of influence of Western countries and strengthening of Eastern. According to some forecasts, economic and technological revolutions will change the economies and social structures of societies; social and democratic revolutions will exert pressure on different levels of government; the geopolitical revolution will create a multipolar world. In the conditions of geopolitical turbulence main courses of power are eroded and predict the trajectories of the transformation of political regimes in the coming decades, especially in the face of strengthening Asia and Latin America, is too complicated.
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地缘政治动荡条件下的政治模式转型
本文分析了在向多中心世界秩序过渡的背景下,政治体制转型的关键因素、趋势和前景。在新时代开始之际,地缘政治的不确定性引起了精英和科学家的极大担忧。这是由于世界大国的霸权发生了一些变化。霸权的本质,不断变化的世界秩序在20世纪受到了特别的关注,并一直是研究的焦点。沃勒斯坦强调,霸权国家必须强大才能获得其地位的好处。事实证明,世界政治中的“单极秩序”在确保全球繁荣与安全、促进民主实践、加强所有地区的世界秩序与稳定方面是不正常的。整个世界秩序的不稳定是由于美国和欧洲联盟国家内部政治分歧和对抗的加剧。改革新地缘政治联盟的进程带来了地缘政治动荡。动荡的国际关系和政治世界有两个主要趋势:(1)地缘政治被地缘经济所取代;(2)国际安全的突变日益从国家间的层面转向安全威胁,不同价值体系和意识形态之间的冲突日益重要和激烈,特别是融合主义(如民主和人权)和特殊意识形态(如民族主义或宗教原教旨主义)之间的冲突。西方化和东方化进程的对抗意味着西方国家影响力的削弱和东方国家影响力的增强。根据一些预测,经济和技术革命将改变社会的经济和社会结构;社会和民主革命将对各级政府施加压力;地缘政治革命将创造一个多极世界。在地缘政治动荡的条件下,权力的主要路线受到侵蚀,预测未来几十年政治体制转型的轨迹,特别是面对日益强大的亚洲和拉丁美洲,过于复杂。
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