Annual Work Plan Execution Performance Using an Automated Production Forecast Tool

Abstract

Shaya Consortium ramped up its production from 60 KBOPD to almost 85 KBOPD as a result of an agile execution of its Field Development Plan, made of infill drilling, workover interventions, and full-field expansion of waterflooding. This combined activity made the planning process very complex and dynamic due to the high volume of operations and scenario evaluation. Additionally, the consortium was requested to provide a weekly production forecast to its major stakeholders highlighting all deviations from the original execution plan and remedial activities to come back on track. The proposed application tool has simplified and automated the forecasting processes using short-term updates of the executed activities from field reports, current well status, planned workover interventions, and new wells drilling schedule. Any deviation of the Annual Work Plan due to schedule variance or well performance is automatically adjusted by the tool, creating a new forecast to End-Of-Year or Quarter even Weekly, thus, reflecting the impact on the estimated recoverable volumes. The tool pulls information from different sources and consolidates them in a single unified environment, not only for forecasting but also as a visualization and analysis tool. Furthermore, it has several modules to facilitate the control of official type curves, scenario profiles for the Annual Work Plan, and it is fully linked to key corporate applications. This paper presents the development of a production forecasting tool that introduced a new way of working within the Shaya Production Team by improving activity scheduling and overcome underperforming new wells, keeping the operations team informed to facilitate the production management.