Ecological and Evolutionary Insights About Emerging Infectious Diseases from the COVID-19 Pandemic

Abstract

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic challenged the workings of human society, but in doing so, it advanced our understanding of the ecology and evolution of infectious diseases. Fluctuating transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) demonstrated the highly dynamic nature of human social behavior, often without government intervention. Evolution of SARS-CoV-2 in the first two years following spillover resulted primarily in increased transmissibility, while in the third year, the globally dominant virus variants had all evolved substantial immune evasion. The combination of viral evolution and the buildup of host immunity through vaccination and infection greatly decreased the realized virulence of SARS-CoV-2 due to the age dependence of disease severity. The COVID-19 pandemic was exacerbated by presymptomatic, asymptomatic, and highly heterogeneous transmission, as well as highly variable disease severity and the broad host range of SARS-CoV-2. Insights and tools developed during the COVID-19 pandemic could provide a stronger scientific basis for preventing, mitigating, and controlling future pandemics. Expected final online publication date for the Annual Review of Ecology, Evolution, and Systematics, Volume 54 is November 2023. Please see http://www.annualreviews.org/page/journal/pubdates for revised estimates.