The Pacific Ocean heat engine

Roger N. Jones, J. Ricketts
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引用次数: 10

Abstract

Abstract. Historical warming forms a sequence of steady-state regimes punctuated by abrupt shifts. These changes are regulated by a heat engine spanning the tropical Pacific Ocean teleconnected to a broader climate network. The eastern-central Pacific maintains steady-state conditions, delivering heat to the Western Pacific warm pool. They form a heat pump with heat moving from the cold to the warm reservoir, sustained by kinetic energy. The two reservoirs exchange heat on a range of timescales, with oscillatory behaviour that intensifies under forcing. The heat engine is part of a network of oscillations and circulation interacting on a range of timescales. The process is self-regulating: steady-state regimes persist until they become unstable due to an over- or under-supply of heat for dissipation, shifting warmer or cooler to a new stable state. Pre-industrial climate was in free mode, characterised by a loosely-coupled ocean-atmosphere with limited circulation, moving into forced mode in the latter 20th century, characterised by tighter coupling and stronger circulation through the tropical Pacific with more active teleconnections globally. Continued forcing produces a stepladder-like pattern of warming. Most shifts coincide with phase changes in decadal oscillations, switching from slower to faster modes of dissipation. El Niño events combine with regime shifts to propagate heat from the oceans to land and from the tropics to higher latitudes. The most recent shift commenced in the warm pool in December 2012, ending the so-called hiatus (1997–2013), global mean surface temperatures warming abruptly by ~0.25 °C in 2014–15.
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太平洋热机
摘要历史上的变暖形成了一系列被突变打断的稳定状态。这些变化是由横跨热带太平洋的热机调节的,热机与更广泛的气候网络远程连接。太平洋中东部保持稳定状态,向西太平洋暖池输送热量。它们形成了一个热泵,热量通过动能从寒冷的热源流向温暖的热源。这两个储层在一定的时间尺度上交换热量,在强迫作用下振荡加剧。热机是在一系列时间尺度上相互作用的振荡和循环网络的一部分。这个过程是自我调节的:稳态状态持续到由于供热过剩或供热不足而变得不稳定,从而将较热或较冷的状态转变为新的稳定状态。工业化前的气候处于自由模式,其特点是海洋-大气耦合松散,环流有限,在20世纪后期进入强迫模式,其特点是耦合更紧密,热带太平洋环流更强,全球远相关更活跃。持续的强迫作用产生了阶梯状的变暖模式。大多数移动与年代际振荡的相位变化一致,从较慢的消散模式切换到较快的消散模式。厄尔尼诺Niño事件与气候变化相结合,将热量从海洋传播到陆地,从热带传播到高纬度地区。最近的转变始于2012年12月的暖池,结束了所谓的中断(1997-2013),2014 - 2015年全球平均地表温度突然变暖了~0.25°C。
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