{"title":"Bayesian credibility premium with GB2 copulas","authors":"Himchan Jeong, Emiliano A. Valdez","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3373377","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"Abstract For observations over a period of time, Bayesian credibility premium may be used to predict the value of a response variable for a subject, given previously observed values. In this article, we formulate Bayesian credibility premium under a change of probability measure within the copula framework. Such reformulation is demonstrated using the multivariate generalized beta of the second kind (GB2) distribution. Within this family of GB2 copulas, we are able to derive explicit form of Bayesian credibility premium. Numerical illustrations show the application of these estimators in determining experience-rated insurance premium. We consider generalized Pareto as a special case.","PeriodicalId":43690,"journal":{"name":"Dependence Modeling","volume":"8 1","pages":"157 - 171"},"PeriodicalIF":0.8000,"publicationDate":"2019-04-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"2","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Dependence Modeling","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3373377","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q4","JCRName":"STATISTICS & PROBABILITY","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
Abstract
Abstract For observations over a period of time, Bayesian credibility premium may be used to predict the value of a response variable for a subject, given previously observed values. In this article, we formulate Bayesian credibility premium under a change of probability measure within the copula framework. Such reformulation is demonstrated using the multivariate generalized beta of the second kind (GB2) distribution. Within this family of GB2 copulas, we are able to derive explicit form of Bayesian credibility premium. Numerical illustrations show the application of these estimators in determining experience-rated insurance premium. We consider generalized Pareto as a special case.
期刊介绍：
The journal Dependence Modeling aims at providing a medium for exchanging results and ideas in the area of multivariate dependence modeling. It is an open access fully peer-reviewed journal providing the readers with free, instant, and permanent access to all content worldwide. Dependence Modeling is listed by Web of Science (Emerging Sources Citation Index), Scopus, MathSciNet and Zentralblatt Math. The journal presents different types of articles: -"Research Articles" on fundamental theoretical aspects, as well as on significant applications in science, engineering, economics, finance, insurance and other fields. -"Review Articles" which present the existing literature on the specific topic from new perspectives. -"Interview articles" limited to two papers per year, covering interviews with milestone personalities in the field of Dependence Modeling. The journal topics include (but are not limited to): -Copula methods -Multivariate distributions -Estimation and goodness-of-fit tests -Measures of association -Quantitative risk management -Risk measures and stochastic orders -Time series -Environmental sciences -Computational methods and software -Extreme-value theory -Limit laws -Mass Transportations
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