Modeling Transit and Automobile Trip-Generation Propensities of Postsecondary students in the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area: A Cross-Sectional Study

Abstract

The postsecondary students in the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area (GTHA) maintain a constant source of demand and ridership for the region's transit infrastructure. With the province investing billions of dollars to meet the transit needs of the residents of the GTHA, a comprehensive analysis establishing the correlation between transit and automobile trips and the factors that influence the trip generation for these modes is warranted. Using data from 2015 and 2019, a cross-sectional study to gain behavioral insights into travel by postsecondary students is performed. Using a bivariate ordered-probit approach, the effect of land-use attributes and socio-demographics on the propensities of making transit and automobile trips is determined, followed by a marginal effects analysis. The results indicate that propensity of making transit and automobile trips decreases if the commute distance to campus is below 5 km, and improvement in transit accessibility can considerably increase the transit trip-making propensity.