Analysis of The State of The Tourism Industry in Russia аnd The Direction of Its Development

Abstract

The purpose of the study. The purpose of the work is to assess the state of the tourism industry using statistical methods, analysis of scientific literature and identification of the main trends and promising directions of its development. The article is devoted to the possibilities of statistical analysis in the conditions of limited statistical information on Russia in relation to the tourism industry.Materials and methods. The following scientific methods are used in the article: analysis of scientific literature, analysis of dynamics and structure, coefficient analysis, correlation and regression analysis, graphical analysis, forecasting of indexes of the tourism industry. The analysis of Russian and foreign literature allowed us to formulate conclusions about modern methods of analysis used to assess the problems of the tourism industry. The analysis of the indexes in dynamics made it possible to identify and describe the main trends in the development of tourist flows, the volume and cost of selling tourist packages. The calculated structure of collective accommodation facilities showed their percentage ratio during the study period and the change in their shares. The use of correlation analysis made it possible to establish the closeness and direction of statistical relationships between individual factors affecting the state of the industry and the volume of tourist trips. A multiple regression model based on indexes characterizing the dynamics of prices for tours sold, the state of the transport sector and the food sector methodology is created. Based on the Box–Jenkins methodology, predictive models were created and medium-term forecasts were calculated for variables characterizing the number of tourist firms and the number of sanatorium-resort organizations and recreation organizations. The initial data for the study were Rosstat data in annual and spatial dimensions for the period 2011–2020.Results. The article highlights the main directions of research in the field of tourism industry, presented in the works of domestic and foreign authors. The foreign approach to its assessment is carried out through evidence-based methods. The research of domestic authors is more focused on the implementation of program-targeted methods and the identification of problems of assessment and prospects for the development of the industry in the Russian Federation. The analysis of the dynamics of inbound and outbound tourist trips showed a tendency to decrease their total number, which is due to the low level of tourist attractiveness, shocks and restrictive measures caused by the SARSCoV-2 pandemic, the tense foreign policy situation. It is established that the most active external tourist flows of the Russian Federation are observed with neighboring countries. Correlation analysis showed the presence of a statistical relationship between the number of trips made with the state of the transport infrastructure and the cost of the tour packages sold. The trend of growth in the implementation of tour packages in Russian destinations and a reduction in their number in foreign destinations, which is due to an increase in the disparity between the average cost of tour packages depending on the destination of the holiday, is established. The carried out regression analysis procedure showed the relationship between the number of tourist packages sold to citizens of the Russian Federation with the variables “average cost of sold tourist packages” and “fleet of aircraft”, which indicates the need to develop transport infrastructure and optimize the cost of recreation. Forecast calculations on the number of travel agencies and sanatorium-resort organizations have shown their decline in the medium term, which indicates the need to take appropriate measures to activate tourism entrepreneurship.Conclusion. Based on the results of the statistical analysis, the analysis of scientific literature and the content of tourism development programs in the Russian Federation, the authors identified common problems and directions of development of the industry. The main problems of the industry are the following: weak tourist attractiveness, insufficient development of tourist and transport infrastructure, lack of accommodation facilities aimed at mass tourists, low quality of domestic accommodation services, and high cost of foreign tours. The priority directions of the development of the domestic tourism business are related to: the introduction of modern digital technologies, active advertising of domestic tourism, optimization of the costs of tourism industry enterprises, activation of state support in difficult economic conditions.