{"title":"Review of Economics and Statistics 2024 Annual Report","authors":"","doi":"10.1162/rest_e_01429","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_e_01429","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":48456,"journal":{"name":"Review of Economics and Statistics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2024-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141055862","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper exploits the universe of credit- and debit-card transactions in China during 2013-2015 and provides the first nationwide analysis of the healthcare cost of PM2.5 for a developing country. We leverage spatial spillovers of PM2.5 from long-range transport to generate exogenous variation in local pollution and employ a flexible distributed lag model to capture semiparametrically the dynamic response of pollution exposure. We find significant impacts of PM2.5 on healthcare spending in both the short and medium terms. A 10 μg/m3 decrease in PM2.5 would reduce annual healthcare spending by over $9.2 billion, about 1.5% of China's annual healthcare expenditure.
{"title":"The Healthcare Cost of Air Pollution: Evidence from the World's Largest Payment Network","authors":"P. Barwick, Shanjun Li, Deyu Rao, N. Zahur","doi":"10.1162/rest_a_01430","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_01430","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 This paper exploits the universe of credit- and debit-card transactions in China during 2013-2015 and provides the first nationwide analysis of the healthcare cost of PM2.5 for a developing country. We leverage spatial spillovers of PM2.5 from long-range transport to generate exogenous variation in local pollution and employ a flexible distributed lag model to capture semiparametrically the dynamic response of pollution exposure. We find significant impacts of PM2.5 on healthcare spending in both the short and medium terms. A 10 μg/m3 decrease in PM2.5 would reduce annual healthcare spending by over $9.2 billion, about 1.5% of China's annual healthcare expenditure.","PeriodicalId":48456,"journal":{"name":"Review of Economics and Statistics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2024-03-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140234596","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
We propose a quantitative spatial model featuring heterogeneous worker groups and their travel to consume non-tradable goods and services. We consider the opening of the Downtown Line (DTL) in Singapore, which connected regions where high-income households have residential amenities to where non-traded sectors are productive. Leveraging transit farecard data, we show that high-income workers saw large welfare gains but low-income workers gained little. Everyone enjoyed improved access to consumption opportunities, but low-income jobs in non-tradables moved to less attractive workplaces. Abstracting from consumption travel understates the disparate impact across worker groups three-fold.
{"title":"Urban Transit Infrastructure and Inequality","authors":"Kwok Hao Lee, Brandon Joel Tan","doi":"10.1162/rest_a_01442","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_01442","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 We propose a quantitative spatial model featuring heterogeneous worker groups and their travel to consume non-tradable goods and services. We consider the opening of the Downtown Line (DTL) in Singapore, which connected regions where high-income households have residential amenities to where non-traded sectors are productive. Leveraging transit farecard data, we show that high-income workers saw large welfare gains but low-income workers gained little. Everyone enjoyed improved access to consumption opportunities, but low-income jobs in non-tradables moved to less attractive workplaces. Abstracting from consumption travel understates the disparate impact across worker groups three-fold.","PeriodicalId":48456,"journal":{"name":"Review of Economics and Statistics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2024-03-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140234836","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Fariha Kamal, Asha Sundaram, Cristina J. Tello-Trillo
We examine how the 1993 Family and Medical Leave Act (FMLA) impacts the gender composition at U.S. firms experiencing a negative demand shock. Combining changes in Chinese imports across industries between 2000 and 2003 and a sharp regression discontinuity to identify FMLA status, we find that an increase in import competition decreases the share of female employment, earnings, and promotions at FMLA relative to non-FMLA firms. This effect is driven by women in prime childbearing ages and without college degrees; and is pronounced at firms with all male managers. These results suggest that job-protected leave mandates may exacerbate gender inequalities in response to adverse shocks.
{"title":"Family-Leave Mandates and Female Labor at U.S. Firms: Evidence from a Trade Shock","authors":"Fariha Kamal, Asha Sundaram, Cristina J. Tello-Trillo","doi":"10.1162/rest_a_01436","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_01436","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 We examine how the 1993 Family and Medical Leave Act (FMLA) impacts the gender composition at U.S. firms experiencing a negative demand shock. Combining changes in Chinese imports across industries between 2000 and 2003 and a sharp regression discontinuity to identify FMLA status, we find that an increase in import competition decreases the share of female employment, earnings, and promotions at FMLA relative to non-FMLA firms. This effect is driven by women in prime childbearing ages and without college degrees; and is pronounced at firms with all male managers. These results suggest that job-protected leave mandates may exacerbate gender inequalities in response to adverse shocks.","PeriodicalId":48456,"journal":{"name":"Review of Economics and Statistics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2024-03-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140231919","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Amitabh Chandra, Jennifer Kao, Kathleen L. Miller, Ariel D. Stern
Regulators of new products confront a tradeoff between speeding a product to market and collecting additional product quality information. The FDA's Breakthrough Therapy Designation (BTD) provides an opportunity to understand if regulators can use new policy to innovate around this tradeoff. We find that the BTD program shortened clinical development times by 23 percent and did not impact the ex post safety profile of drugs with the designation. The BTD program had the greatest impact on less experienced firms and reduced clinical trial design complexity. The results suggest that targeted regulatory innovation can shorten R&D periods without compromising product quality.
{"title":"Regulatory Incentives for Innovation: The FDA's Breakthrough Therapy Designation","authors":"Amitabh Chandra, Jennifer Kao, Kathleen L. Miller, Ariel D. Stern","doi":"10.1162/rest_a_01434","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_01434","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 Regulators of new products confront a tradeoff between speeding a product to market and collecting additional product quality information. The FDA's Breakthrough Therapy Designation (BTD) provides an opportunity to understand if regulators can use new policy to innovate around this tradeoff. We find that the BTD program shortened clinical development times by 23 percent and did not impact the ex post safety profile of drugs with the designation. The BTD program had the greatest impact on less experienced firms and reduced clinical trial design complexity. The results suggest that targeted regulatory innovation can shorten R&D periods without compromising product quality.","PeriodicalId":48456,"journal":{"name":"Review of Economics and Statistics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2024-03-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140233633","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
We examine the impact of biometric monitoring devices placed in tuberculosis treatment centers in Indian slums. The devices record health worker attendance and patient visits. Combining survey data, random center visits, and hospital registers, we find that patients at biometric-equipped centers are 25 percent less likely to interrupt treatment, reflecting increased efforts by health workers and greater daily adherence by patients. The technology also improves the quality of public data by reducing overreported patient numbers and underreported treatment interruptions. Overall, our results suggest that real-time monitoring of service delivery can strengthen the state's capacity to serve poor and marginalized populations.
{"title":"Biometric Monitoring, Service Delivery and Misreporting: Evidence from Healthcare in India","authors":"T. Bossuroy, Clara Delavallade, Vincent Pons","doi":"10.1162/rest_a_01433","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_01433","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 We examine the impact of biometric monitoring devices placed in tuberculosis treatment centers in Indian slums. The devices record health worker attendance and patient visits. Combining survey data, random center visits, and hospital registers, we find that patients at biometric-equipped centers are 25 percent less likely to interrupt treatment, reflecting increased efforts by health workers and greater daily adherence by patients. The technology also improves the quality of public data by reducing overreported patient numbers and underreported treatment interruptions. Overall, our results suggest that real-time monitoring of service delivery can strengthen the state's capacity to serve poor and marginalized populations.","PeriodicalId":48456,"journal":{"name":"Review of Economics and Statistics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2024-03-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140234077","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Exponential regressions are frequently used when outcomes are non-negative. They are attractive because they are easy to interpret and to estimate, using pseudo maximum likelihood (PML). However, the validity of these methods depends on the correct specification of the conditional expectation, and little is known regarding their properties when the conditional expectation is misspecified. We show that PML estimators of misspecified exponential models provide optimal approximations to the conditional expectation, in a weighted mean squared error sense, and we give conditions under which their Poisson PML estimator identifies average marginal effects.
{"title":"Misspecified Exponential Regressions: Estimation, Interpretation, and Average Marginal Effects","authors":"J.M.C. Santos Silva, Rainer Winkelmann","doi":"10.1162/rest_a_01443","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_01443","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 Exponential regressions are frequently used when outcomes are non-negative. They are attractive because they are easy to interpret and to estimate, using pseudo maximum likelihood (PML). However, the validity of these methods depends on the correct specification of the conditional expectation, and little is known regarding their properties when the conditional expectation is misspecified. We show that PML estimators of misspecified exponential models provide optimal approximations to the conditional expectation, in a weighted mean squared error sense, and we give conditions under which their Poisson PML estimator identifies average marginal effects.","PeriodicalId":48456,"journal":{"name":"Review of Economics and Statistics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2024-03-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140234223","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This study examines the impact of school choice on academic achievement. I use differences in the number of schools across similar Romanian towns, generating variation in school choice for local students, who compete for seats via test scores. I find that more school choice results in increased sorting of students by admission scores across different schools. Sorting widens achievement gaps between high- and low-admission score students. High-scorers having access to better teachers and peer effects are the primary factors explaining these widening gaps. Lastly, between-school competition via school choice does not increase average achievement levels.
{"title":"School Choice, Student Sorting, and Academic Performance","authors":"Andrei Munteanu","doi":"10.1162/rest_a_01438","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_01438","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 This study examines the impact of school choice on academic achievement. I use differences in the number of schools across similar Romanian towns, generating variation in school choice for local students, who compete for seats via test scores. I find that more school choice results in increased sorting of students by admission scores across different schools. Sorting widens achievement gaps between high- and low-admission score students. High-scorers having access to better teachers and peer effects are the primary factors explaining these widening gaps. Lastly, between-school competition via school choice does not increase average achievement levels.","PeriodicalId":48456,"journal":{"name":"Review of Economics and Statistics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2024-03-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140234795","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
We propose a method to detect shifts in housing price expectations by observing excess capacity. Anticipated future price hikes lead to increased current supply, resulting in temporary vacancies. Using a structural vector autoregression with sign restrictions, we analyze the impact of these expectations on the U.S. housing market. Our findings indicate that price expectation shocks primarily drove the 1996–2006 boom, especially in the Sand States. At the boom's peak, these shocks stemmed from unrealistic growth expectations, which reversed during the bust.
{"title":"Inferring Expectations from Observables: Evidence from the Housing Market","authors":"Itzhak Ben-David, Pascal Towbin, Sebastian Weber","doi":"10.1162/rest_a_01435","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_01435","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 We propose a method to detect shifts in housing price expectations by observing excess capacity. Anticipated future price hikes lead to increased current supply, resulting in temporary vacancies. Using a structural vector autoregression with sign restrictions, we analyze the impact of these expectations on the U.S. housing market. Our findings indicate that price expectation shocks primarily drove the 1996–2006 boom, especially in the Sand States. At the boom's peak, these shocks stemmed from unrealistic growth expectations, which reversed during the bust.","PeriodicalId":48456,"journal":{"name":"Review of Economics and Statistics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2024-03-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140234477","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
I use newly-digitized contract data on U.S. war production spending over 1940-1945 to analyze the macroeconomic effects of U.S. military spending in World War II. I find personal income multipliers of 0.34 over two years and 0.49 over three years. Personal income multipliers may substantially understate GDP multipliers, perhaps by as much as 50%. Employment estimates imply costs per job-year over the same time horizons of $405,013 and $232,268 in 2015 dollars, suggesting job creation was limited. I also find evidence of negative scale effects: larger positive spending shocks are associated with systematically smaller multiplier estimates.
{"title":"Stimulus on the Home Front: The State-Level Effects of WWII Spending","authors":"Gillian Brunet","doi":"10.1162/rest_a_01432","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_01432","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 I use newly-digitized contract data on U.S. war production spending over 1940-1945 to analyze the macroeconomic effects of U.S. military spending in World War II. I find personal income multipliers of 0.34 over two years and 0.49 over three years. Personal income multipliers may substantially understate GDP multipliers, perhaps by as much as 50%. Employment estimates imply costs per job-year over the same time horizons of $405,013 and $232,268 in 2015 dollars, suggesting job creation was limited. I also find evidence of negative scale effects: larger positive spending shocks are associated with systematically smaller multiplier estimates.","PeriodicalId":48456,"journal":{"name":"Review of Economics and Statistics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2024-03-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140234606","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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