A gravity model approach to understand the spread of pandemics: Evidence from the COVID-19 outbreak

Albert Opoku Frimpong, Kwadwo Arhin, M. Boachie, Kwame Acheampong
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Abstract

Abstract Pandemics disrupt the global economy. Understanding the transmission pattern of pandemics informs policies to prevent or reduce the catastrophic consequences associated with pandemics. In this study, we applied the gravity model of trade to investigate the transmission pattern of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) across countries. The results suggest an outbreak in a country is likely to spread faster (slower) from a shrinking (booming) economy to a booming (shrinking) economy.
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理解大流行传播的重力模型方法:来自COVID-19爆发的证据
流行病扰乱了全球经济。了解大流行的传播模式可以为预防或减少与大流行相关的灾难性后果的政策提供信息。在这项研究中,我们应用贸易重力模型研究了2019冠状病毒病(COVID-19)的跨国传播模式。结果表明,一个国家的疫情可能会更快(更慢)地从一个萎缩(繁荣)的经济体传播到另一个繁荣(萎缩)的经济体。
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