Structural sensitivity in the functional responses of predator–prey models

Abstract

In mathematical modelling, several different functional forms can often be used to fit a data set equally well, especially if the data is sparse. In such cases, these mathematically different but similar looking functional forms are typically considered interchangeable. Recent work, however, shows that similar functional responses may nonetheless result in significantly different bifurcation points for the Rosenzweig–MacArthur predator–prey system. Since the bifurcation behaviours include destabilizing oscillations, predicting the occurrence of such behaviours is clearly important. Ecologically, different bifurcation behaviours mean that different predictions may be obtained from the models. These predictions can range from stable coexistence to the extinction of both species, so obtaining more accurate predictions is also clearly important for conservationists. Mathematically, this difference in bifurcation structure given similar functional responses is called structural sensitivity. We extend the existing work to find that the Leslie–Gower–May predator–prey system is also structurally sensitive to the functional response. Using the Rosenzweig–MacArthur and Leslie–Gower–May models, we then aim to determine if there is some way to obtain a functional description of data so that different functional responses yield the same bifurcation structure, i.e., we aim to describe data such that our model is not structurally sensitive. We first add stochasticity to the functional responses and find that better similarity of the resulting bifurcation structures is achieved. Then, we analyse the functional responses using two different methods to determine which part of each function contributes most to the observed bifurcation behaviour. We find that prey densities around the coexistence steady state are most important in defining the functional response. Lastly, we propose a procedure for ecologists and mathematical modellers to increase the accuracy of model predictions in predator–prey systems.