Private Information and Currency Returns: A Corporate Investment Connection

Abstract

We uncover a novel source of predictive information, originating from the announcements of cross-border mergers and acquisitions (M&As), that forecasts economic acceleration and currency returns. Consistent with the announcements revealing firms' private expectations about economic fundamentals, we find that a country's economic growth accelerates, and their local currency appreciates, following months in which their announced cross-border M&A net inflows are abnormally high; while the opposite outcomes are observed following abnormally high M&A net outflows. The predictability captures reversals in economic acceleration and is driven by the acquisition decisions of domestic firms. A currency portfolio that exploits the predictability is found to generate a Sharpe ratio of over 0.70 and to offer large diversification gains to global currency investors.