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PSN: Exchange Rates & Currency (Comparative) (Topic)最新文献

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Cryptocurrency, Decentralized Finance, and the Evolution of Exchange: A Transaction Costs Approach 加密货币、去中心化金融和交换的演变:交易成本方法
Pub Date : 2021-07-22 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3891593
J. Caton, Cameron Harwick
We leverage a transaction costs narrative to provide a theoretically unified presentation of the evolution of exchange, with the latest evolutionary frontier being cryptocurrency and decentralized finance. We show that with each new development in the evolution of money, the new form or medium of exchange must reduce transaction costs relative to relevant alternatives. The development of blockchain and cryptocurrency reduced the cost of transfering currency by removing the need for a trusted third party to intermediate funds while also providing the benefit of anonymity/pseudonymity. Likewise, decentralized finance does not require a third party to intermediate savings and investment and can provide contingent anonymity to borrowers. While these innovations have attracted investment in the economically developed world, they appear to have significantly reduced transaction costs for transactors who might otherwise be defrauded of funds by corrupt governments that extort third parties responsible for intermediating funds.
我们利用交易成本叙事来提供理论上统一的交换演变,最新的演变前沿是加密货币和去中心化金融。我们表明,随着货币进化的每一个新发展,新的交换形式或媒介必须降低相对于相关替代品的交易成本。区块链和加密货币的发展通过消除对可信第三方到中间资金的需求,降低了转移货币的成本,同时还提供了匿名/假名的好处。同样,去中心化金融不需要第三方来中介储蓄和投资,并且可以为借款人提供偶然的匿名性。虽然这些创新吸引了经济发达国家的投资,但它们似乎大大降低了交易者的交易成本,否则他们可能会被腐败的政府骗取资金,这些政府敲诈负责中介资金的第三方。
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引用次数: 0
Designing a Central Bank Digital Currency with Support for Cash-Like Privacy 设计一种支持类似现金隐私的中央银行数字货币
Pub Date : 2021-07-22 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3891121
Jonas Gross, Johannes Sedlmeir, Matthias Babel, Alexandra Bechtel, Benjamin Schellinger
Most central banks in advanced economies consider issuing central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) to address the declining use of cash and to position themselves against increased competition from Big Tech companies, cryptocurrencies, and stablecoins. One crucial design dimension of a CBDC system is the degree of transaction privacy. Existing solutions are either prone to security concerns or do not provide full (cash-like) privacy. Moreover, it is often argued that a fully private payment system and, in particular, anonymous transactions cannot comply with anti-money laundering (AML) and countering the financing of terrorism (CFT) regulation. In this paper, we follow a design science research approach (DSR) to develop and evaluate a holistic software-based CBDC system that supports fully private transactions and addresses regulatory constraints. To this end, we employ zero-knowledge proofs (ZKP) to impose limits on fully private payments. Thereby, we are able to address regulatory constraints without disclosing any transaction details to third parties. We evaluate our artifact in interviews with leading economic, legal, and technical experts and find that a regulatorily compliant CBDC system that supports full (cash-like) privacy is feasible.
发达经济体的大多数央行都考虑发行央行数字货币(cbdc),以解决现金使用量下降的问题,并使自己能够应对来自大型科技公司、加密货币和稳定币的日益激烈的竞争。CBDC系统的一个关键设计维度是交易隐私程度。现有的解决方案要么容易出现安全问题,要么不提供完整的(类似现金的)隐私。此外,人们经常认为,一个完全私人的支付系统,特别是匿名交易,不符合反洗钱(AML)和打击恐怖主义融资(CFT)的规定。在本文中,我们遵循设计科学研究方法(DSR)来开发和评估一个基于软件的整体CBDC系统,该系统支持完全私有交易并解决监管限制。为此,我们采用零知识证明(ZKP)对完全私人支付施加限制。因此,我们能够在不向第三方披露任何交易细节的情况下解决监管限制。我们在与领先的经济、法律和技术专家的访谈中评估了我们的产品,并发现支持完全(类似现金)隐私的符合监管要求的CBDC系统是可行的。
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引用次数: 24
Private Information and Currency Returns: A Corporate Investment Connection 私人信息与货币回报:企业投资的联系
Pub Date : 2021-06-08 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3711715
Steven J. Riddiough, Huizhong Zhang
We uncover a novel source of predictive information, originating from the announcements of cross-border mergers and acquisitions (M&As), that forecasts economic acceleration and currency returns. Consistent with the announcements revealing firms' private expectations about economic fundamentals, we find that a country's economic growth accelerates, and their local currency appreciates, following months in which their announced cross-border M&A net inflows are abnormally high; while the opposite outcomes are observed following abnormally high M&A net outflows. The predictability captures reversals in economic acceleration and is driven by the acquisition decisions of domestic firms. A currency portfolio that exploits the predictability is found to generate a Sharpe ratio of over 0.70 and to offer large diversification gains to global currency investors.
我们从跨国并购公告中发现了一种新的预测信息来源,可以预测经济加速和货币回报。与揭示企业对经济基本面的私人预期的公告一致,我们发现,在一个国家宣布的跨境并购净流入异常高的几个月后,该国的经济增长加速,其本币升值;而在并购净流出异常高的情况下,则观察到相反的结果。这种可预测性反映了经济加速的逆转,并受到国内企业收购决策的推动。研究发现,利用可预测性的货币投资组合可以产生超过0.70的夏普比率,并为全球货币投资者提供巨大的多元化收益。
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引用次数: 0
On the Return Distributions of a Basket of Cryptocurrencies and Subsequent Implications 一篮子加密货币的收益分布及其影响
Pub Date : 2021-05-14 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3851563
Christoph J. Börner, Ingo Hoffmann, Jonas Krettek, Lars Kuerzinger, Tim Schmitz
This paper evaluates and assesses the risk associated with capital allocation in cryptocurrencies (CCs). In this regard, we take a basket of 27 CCs and the CC index EWCI− into account. After considering a series of statistical tests we find the stable distribution (SDI) to be the most appropriate to model the body of CCs returns. However, as we find the SDI to possess less favorable properties in the tail area for high quantiles, the generalized Pareto distribution is adapted for a more precise risk assessment. We use a combination of both distributions to calculate the Value at Risk and the Conditional Value at Risk, indicating two subgroups of CCs with differing risk characteristics.
本文评估和评估了与加密货币(cc)的资本配置相关的风险。在这方面,我们考虑了一篮子27个ccc和ccc指数EWCI -。在考虑了一系列的统计检验后,我们发现稳定分布(SDI)是最适合的模型的主体CCs回报。然而,当我们发现SDI在高分位数的尾部区域具有不太有利的特性时,广义帕累托分布适用于更精确的风险评估。我们使用两种分布的组合来计算风险值和条件风险值,表明具有不同风险特征的两个cc子组。
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引用次数: 1
Behavior of the Bank of England and the Pound Sterling in the Conditions of Brexit Uncertainty 英国脱欧不确定性条件下英国央行和英镑的行为
Pub Date : 2020-11-30 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3756982
E. Huseynzade
The list of sectors affected by the Brexit process include the pound sterling and including the decisions of the Bank of England, which is its regulatory body. Impacts on the Brexit process have largely occurred since the 2016 referendum. This gives us reason to believe that the main indicator influencing monetary policy in 2016-2020 is the economic and political uncertainties created by the information caused by Brexit. The purpose of the study is to analyze the fluctuations in the national currency due to the Brexit effect and the reactions of the Bank of England to this process. We can consider the Brexit process as the peak of Euroscepticism in the United Kingdom. This issue has also been discussed in the European Union for years. Although the Brexit process actually took place on January 31, 2020. However, Brexit uncertainty is having an impact on the economy after certain announcements. Between 2016 and 2020, the pound and the Bank of England experienced a number of historic lows.
受英国脱欧进程影响的行业包括英镑,以及监管机构英国央行(Bank of England)的决定。自2016年公投以来,英国脱欧进程受到的影响很大。这让我们有理由相信,2016-2020年影响货币政策的主要指标是英国脱欧引发的信息所带来的经济和政治不确定性。本研究的目的是分析由于英国脱欧效应导致的本国货币波动以及英格兰银行对此过程的反应。我们可以将英国脱欧进程视为英国欧洲怀疑主义的顶峰。这个问题在欧盟也讨论了多年。尽管英国脱欧进程实际上是在2020年1月31日进行的。然而,在某些公告之后,英国脱欧的不确定性正在对经济产生影响。2016年至2020年期间,英镑和英国央行经历了多次历史低点。
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引用次数: 0
Money is Money: The Economic Impact of BerkShares 《钱就是钱:伯克希尔股票的经济影响
Pub Date : 2020-10-17 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3732903
Josh Matti, Yang Zhou
Community currencies are a popular way localities around the world pursue a sustainable economy. However, no studies look at the economic impact of community currencies using modern causal inference methods. We use the synthetic control method to examine the short and long-term effects of the popular community currency BerkShares on the number of businesses, unemployment rate, and per capita income in the county in which it circulates. The results suggest that BerkShares has had no impact either directly on businesses or indirectly on the local economy as a whole. Additionally, BerkShares has not impacted business dynamics. Results from the synthetic control method suggest that establishment births, deaths, expansions, and contractions following BerkShares are no different than what they would have been without the currency. Given its lack of impact, the results serve as a caution for localities considering community currencies as an economic development strategy.
社区货币是世界各地追求可持续经济的一种流行方式。然而,没有研究使用现代因果推理方法来研究社区货币的经济影响。我们使用综合控制方法来检验流行的社区货币伯克股份对其流通所在县的企业数量、失业率和人均收入的短期和长期影响。研究结果表明,伯克希尔股票对企业没有直接影响,对整个当地经济也没有间接影响。此外,伯克希尔股票并没有影响业务动态。综合控制方法的结果表明,在伯克希尔股票之后,企业的出生、死亡、扩张和收缩与没有货币的情况没有什么不同。鉴于其缺乏影响力,研究结果对考虑将社区货币作为经济发展战略的地方起到了警示作用。
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引用次数: 2
Ambiguity, Optimal Currency Overlay, and Home Currency Bias 歧义、最优货币叠加和本国货币偏差
Pub Date : 2020-08-28 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3683821
Urban Ulrych, N. Vasiljević
This paper addresses the problem of determining an optimal currency allocation for a risk-and-ambiguity-averse international investor. A robust mean-variance model with smooth ambiguity preferences is used to derive the optimal currency exposure. The theoretical part of the paper shows that the sample-efficient currency demand can be calculated as the solution to a generalized ridge regression. Through the lens of these results, we demonstrate that our model offers a new explanation of the home currency bias as the optimal currency allocation under extreme ambiguity aversion. The investor's dislike for model uncertainty induces a disproportionately high currency hedging demand. The empirical analysis demonstrates how ambiguity leads to a larger estimation bias and simultaneously narrows the confidence interval of the optimal currency exposure. The out-of-sample backtest illustrates that accounting for ambiguity enhances the stability of optimal currency allocation and significantly improves the risk-adjusted portfolio performance net of transaction costs.
本文解决了风险和模糊性厌恶的国际投资者确定最佳货币配置的问题。采用平滑模糊偏好的稳健均值-方差模型推导出最优货币敞口。本文的理论部分表明,样本有效货币需求可以作为广义岭回归的解来计算。通过这些结果,我们证明了我们的模型提供了一个新的解释,即在极端模糊性厌恶下,本国货币偏差是最优货币配置。投资者对模型不确定性的厌恶导致了不成比例的高货币对冲需求。实证分析表明,模糊性如何导致更大的估计偏差,同时缩小了最优货币敞口的置信区间。样本外回检验表明,考虑模糊性增强了最优货币配置的稳定性,显著提高了经风险调整后的投资组合净交易成本绩效。
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引用次数: 1
The Influence of Stablecoin Issuances on Cryptocurrency Markets 稳定币发行对加密货币市场的影响
Pub Date : 2020-06-15 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3626969
Lennart Ante, Ingo Fiedler, E. Strehle
Abstract Stablecoins are digital currencies that are pegged to non-volatile assets. As alternatives to fiat currencies, they constitute an important aspect of cryptocurrency markets. We analyze returns of cryptocurrencies around 565 stablecoin issuances events for seven different stablecoins between April 2019 and March 2020. Our event study reveals market downturns in the week before issuance and positive abnormal returns in the twenty-four hours around the issuance. Effects differ and remain insignificant for some stablecoin subsamples and issuance size does not significantly affect the abnormal returns. We conclude that stablecoin issuances contribute to price discovery and market efficiency of cryptocurrencies.
稳定币是与非波动性资产挂钩的数字货币。作为法定货币的替代品,它们构成了加密货币市场的一个重要方面。我们分析了2019年4月至2020年3月期间七种不同稳定币的565个稳定币发行事件的加密货币回报。我们的事件研究显示,在发行前一周,市场会出现低迷,而在发行前后的24小时内,市场会出现正异常回报。对于一些稳定币子样本,影响不同且不显著,发行规模对异常收益没有显著影响。我们得出结论,稳定币的发行有助于加密货币的价格发现和市场效率。
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引用次数: 48
Real Exchange Rate Dynamics Beyond Business Cycles 超越商业周期的实际汇率动态
Pub Date : 2020-03-10 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3552189
Dan Cao, Martin D. D. Evans, Wenlan Luo
We examine how medium-term movements in real exchange rates and GDP vary with international financial conditions. For this purpose, we study the international transmission of productivity shocks across a variety of IRBC models that incorporate different assumptions about the persistence of productivity shocks, the degree of international risk sharing and access to international asset markets. Using a new global solution method, we demonstrate that the transmission of productivity shocks depends critically on the proximity of a national economy to its international borrowing limit. We then show that this implication of the IRBC model is consistent with the behavior of the US-UK real exchange rate and GDP over the past 200 years. The model also produces a negative correlation between relative consumption growth and real depreciation rate consistent with more recent data, and hence offers a resolution of the Backus-Smith puzzle.
我们研究了实际汇率和GDP的中期变动如何随国际金融状况而变化。为此,我们通过各种IRBC模型研究生产率冲击的国际传导,这些模型包含了关于生产率冲击持续时间、国际风险分担程度和进入国际资产市场的不同假设。利用一种新的全球解决方法,我们证明了生产率冲击的传导在很大程度上取决于一国经济是否接近其国际借贷上限。然后,我们证明了IRBC模型的这一含义与过去200年来美英实际汇率和GDP的行为是一致的。该模型还得出了相对消费增长与实际折旧率之间的负相关关系,这与最近的数据一致,因此为巴克斯-史密斯之谜提供了一个解决方案。
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引用次数: 1
Monetary Appreciation and Foreign Currency Mortgages: Lessons from the 2015 Swiss Franc Surge 货币升值和外币抵押贷款:2015年瑞士法郎飙升的教训
Pub Date : 2020-03-01 DOI: 10.54648/erpl2020008
R. Vassileva
Since 2007 the Swiss franc had been getting stronger, but it was a decision by the Swiss National Bank to unpeg the Swiss franc from the Euro in 2015, which resulted in its significant appreciation and shocked FX markets. Many citizens in Central and Eastern Europe were directly affected because they had taken out mortgages denominated in Swiss francs or linked to Swiss francs. In these countries, foreign currencymortgages are common because the interest rates on foreign denominated loans are lower, foreign currencies are more stable than the local currency, some citizens earn their income abroad, etc. This article analyses the impact of the Swiss franc surge on mortgages denominated in or linked to Swiss francs fromthe perspective of contract law, consumer law and financial regulation. Then, it examines the strengths and weaknesses of the responses to the Swiss franc controversy of three jurisdictions – Bulgaria, Croatia and Serbia, which addressed the issue in distinct ways despite their relative legal cultural similarities. The purpose of the comparison is to consider what lessons may be learned from the Swiss franc surge and how they may inform the recent Directive 2014/17/EU on mortgage credit.
自2007年以来,瑞士法郎一直走强,但瑞士国家银行在2015年决定将瑞士法郎与欧元脱钩,这导致瑞士法郎大幅升值,并震惊了外汇市场。中欧和东欧的许多公民受到直接影响,因为他们的抵押贷款以瑞士法郎计价或与瑞士法郎挂钩。在这些国家,外币抵押贷款很常见,因为外币贷款的利率较低,外币比当地货币更稳定,一些公民在国外赚取收入,等等。本文从合同法、消费者法和金融监管的角度分析了瑞郎暴涨对以瑞郎计价或与瑞郎挂钩的抵押贷款的影响。然后,研究了保加利亚、克罗地亚和塞尔维亚这三个司法管辖区对瑞士法郎争议的反应的优缺点,尽管它们的法律文化相对相似,但它们以不同的方式解决了这个问题。比较的目的是考虑可以从瑞士法郎的飙升中吸取什么教训,以及它们如何为最近的2014/17/EU抵押贷款信贷指令提供信息。
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引用次数: 2
期刊
PSN: Exchange Rates & Currency (Comparative) (Topic)
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