Beraten und Prognostizieren. Unsicheres Wissen in der institutionellen vs. der massenmedialen Politikberatung

Abstract

Scientific policy advice provides a special framework for processing scientific uncertainties. Socio-political decisions often require a reliable scientific basis that can be used as orientation and legitimation for political decisions. On the one hand, policy advice takes place institutionalized (e. g. by the Office of Technology Assessment at the German Bundestag [TAB] and the National Academy of Sciences Leopoldina), but also in public media discourse, when scientists give interviews or inform about scientific topics in talk shows. The need for advice concerns future actions and is thus closely linked to uncertain knowledge and the providing of forecasts, i. e. a look into the future. In this article, we focus on the practices of consulting and forecasting in the context of policy advice and capture them in their differentiations as well as show what role uncertain knowledge plays in their argumentation. In addition, we analyze to what extent the formulation of prognoses and advice is influenced by the genre and media context of the statement (expert opinion vs. interview / talk show, i. e. also: written and oral contexts).