Pobreza, desigualdad y tamaño de municipio como factores explicativos del robo en México.

Abstract

In Mexico, evidence about the relationship between poverty and inequality, on the one hand, and delinquency, on the other, has been elusive. After correcting the problem of endogeneity through instrumental variables and controlling for the socio-demographic and economic specificities of the municipalities, we find that there is a negative relationship  between robbery and poverty, while a positive relationship prevails with inequality. Moreover, the interaction between the size of municipality and inequality makes the magnitude of the relationship vary with the size of the municipality. To the extent that the more prosperous municipalities are more prone to suffer robberies, ceteris paribus, it is inferred that the expected benefits of the robberies are greater than their expected costs. These results are robust to the different poverty indicators used, so they represent a solid starting point for making crime prevention decisions.