Prediction of flood hydrograph using the modified Cunge-Muskingum method in an ungauged basin: a case study in the Kulsi river basin, India

Abstract

The Cunge-Muskingum routing model is one of the most popular and widely used models for hydrologic channel flood routing. The application of Cunge-Muskingum model to an ungauged basin is hindered by the lack of hydro-meteorological data. In the present study, a method is proposed to predict the outflow hydrograph of an ungauged basin as a solution to this problem. The Cunge-Muskingum method is modified, considering the non-prismatic complex natural channel. The Soil Conservation Service Curve Number rainfall-runoff model is employed to obtain the inflow and lateral inflow hydrographs of the ungauged basins, and the Modified Cunge-Muskingum model is employed to anticipate the flood hydrograph at the outlet of the ungauged basin. The proposed approach is employed to the Kulsi River Basin, India, hypothetically treated as an ungauged basin, and the results are compared with the observed data at the outlet of the basin. The performance of the model is evaluated based on RMSE (50.34 m3/s), peak flow error (39.73%), peak flow time error (–3.44%), total volume error (7.36%), relative error (7.36%), mean absolute error (33.5%), correlation coefficient (0.785), coefficient of efficiency (0.59) and Kling-Gupta efficiency (0.66).The results reveal that the proposed Modified Cunge-Muskingum model is an efficient predictor of the flood hydrograph at the outlet of the ungauged basin.