Wind Speed Forecast for Sudan Using the Two-Parameter Weibull Distribution: The Case of Khartoum City

Abstract

In this quick study, we estimated the Weibull distribution’s parameters using wind data collected between March 2017 and January 2018 using a twelve-meter mast meteorological station on the grounds of the National Energy Research Center in Khartoum. In order to quantify these descriptors, we relied on analytical and stochastic methods, subsequently enabling specialists from researchers, engineers, decision-makers, and policymakers to apprehend the wind characteristics in the vicinity. Hence, the computed scale and shape parameters were provided, in which the Firefly algorithm (FA) resulted in the most accuracy in terms of the coefficient of determination, which equaled 0.999, which we considered logical due to the observed nonlinearity in the wind speed numbers. On the contrary, the energy pattern factor method had the worst prediction capability depending on several goodness-of-fit metrics. This concise work is unique because it is the first to use data from Sudan to forecast local wind speeds using artificial intelligence algorithms, particularly the FA technique, which is widely used in solar photovoltaic modeling. Additionally, since classic estimating approaches act differently spatially, evaluating their efficacy becomes innovative, which was accomplished here. On a similar note, a weighted-average wind speed was found to equal 4.98 m/s and the FA average wind speed was 3.73 m/s, while the rose diagram indicated that most winds with potential energy equivalent to 3 m/s or more blow from the north.