Chapter Five: Russia and Eurasia

Abstract

Russia’s core defence budget saw a mild nominal increase in 2021 but fell by 1.8% in real terms as the inflation rate reached 5.9%. Similarly, while total military expenditure is estimated to have reached RUB4.59 trillion (USD62.2 billion) in 2021, up from RUB4.46trn (USD61.6bn) the year before, this also constitutes a reduction in real terms of 5.2% down to USD55.7bn (constant 2015 USD). In late 2021, attention was again focused on Russia’s build-up of forces on the border with Ukraine and in Crimea. Russia’s April 2021 deployments in the same areas, under the pretext of conducting surprise exercises, involved between 25% and 33% of Russia’s total deployable ground forces. The November buildup again highlighted not just the resources Moscow could mobilise as part of its deployments, but also the supporting civilian – as well as military – infrastructure that enabled it to do so. Against the background of the continuing delay in developing and delivering armoured vehicles based on the new Armata, Kurganets-25 and Bumerang platforms, the MoD continues to modernise the current armouredvehicle fleet. The MoD signed an additional contract for an undeclared quantity of T-90M main battle tanks; some of these will be again upgraded from T-90As. There was particular attention on the Airborne Forces (VDV) in exercise Zapad 2021. For the first time, the VDV practised a full battalion landing with BMD-4M airborne combat vehicles. During the same exercise a full battalion also carried out a night airborne assault. The navy continued testing sea-launched 3M22 Tsirkon hypersonic missiles, including the first surface and submerged firings from a submarine, the Yasen (Project 885) vessel Severodvinsk, in October. The first serial-production Tsirkon weapons are scheduled to go into service in 2022. The Aerospace Forces has begun taking delivery of the first of up to 24 upgraded Su-34 Fullback bombers, which include a broader set of weapons and the ability to be fitted with expanded weapons and reconnaissance pods. The first aircraft are assigned to the 2nd Regiment at Chelyabinsk in the Central Military District, with the type likely replacing the Su-24MR Fencer E.