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The Military Balance最新文献

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Index of country/territory abbreviations 国家/地区缩写索引
Q3 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-02-14 DOI: 10.1080/04597222.2023.2162725
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引用次数: 0
Chapter Seven: Middle East and North Africa 第七章:中东和北非
Q3 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-02-14 DOI: 10.1080/04597222.2023.2162719
United Arab Emirates 63,000 „ Iran emerged as a key military supporter of Russia in 2022, as the latter struggled during its war in Ukraine. Iran sent Shahed 131 and 136 Direct Attack Munitions to Ukraine, and there was speculation that in response Russia would step up sales to Iran, potentially selling the Su-35 aircraft originally intended for Egypt. Russia has also sought Iranian assistance to circumvent Western sanctions. „ 2022 saw regional governments embrace deescalation and engage in diplomacy in ways not seen before. These developments were motivated largely by the post-pandemic recovery and the need for a greater focus on economic affairs. However, the picture was not wholly positive: violence persisted in Libya, Syria and Yemen, while Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia and the UAE continued. „ Ties improved between Turkey and Gulf states, and between Turkey and Israel. Ankara obtained Gulf investment pledges and Gulf boycotts of Turkish goods were lifted. This occurred within a context of strengthening defence cooperation, including maritime and air exercises, between Egypt, Greece and Cyprus, as well as between Greece and the UAE. „ To foster greater regional collective cooperation against Iran, the US has orchestrated initiatives that capitalised on warming relations between Israel and several regional states. In February, USCENTCOM launched a task force in the Gulf to conduct surveillance by using uninhabited systems and in April the US announced the creation of CTF-153, a maritime task force in the Red Sea designed to monitor the activities of Iran and its proxies. „ Amidst a challenging global economic context, regional real GDP growth is estimated to have increased from an average 4.1% in 2021 to an average 5.0% in 2022, excluding Lebanon, Libya and Syria. But regional trends mask sharp disparities driven by the surge in the oil price over 2022. Growth among oil importers is estimated to have reached 4.4% in 2022 compared to 5.2% for oil exporters and 6.5% for Gulf Cooperation Council member states. Fiscal conservatism still shaped spending decisions in 2022.
伊朗在2022年成为俄罗斯的主要军事支持者,当时俄罗斯正在乌克兰战争中挣扎。伊朗向乌克兰运送了Shahed 131和136直接攻击弹药,有人猜测,作为回应,俄罗斯将加大对伊朗的销售力度,可能会出售原本打算卖给埃及的苏-35飞机。俄罗斯还寻求伊朗的帮助,以规避西方的制裁。2022年,地区政府采取了缓和局势的措施,并以前所未有的方式开展外交活动。推动这些事态发展的主要原因是大流行后的复苏以及更加注重经济事务的必要性。然而,形势并非完全乐观:利比亚、叙利亚和也门的暴力活动仍在持续,而胡塞武装(Houthi)对沙特阿拉伯和阿联酋的袭击仍在继续。土耳其与海湾国家以及土耳其与以色列之间的关系有所改善。安卡拉获得了海湾国家的投资承诺,海湾国家取消了对土耳其商品的抵制。这发生在加强国防合作的背景下,包括海上和空中演习,在埃及,希腊和塞浦路斯之间,以及希腊和阿联酋之间。为了促进针对伊朗的更大的地区集体合作,美国精心策划了利用以色列和几个地区国家之间不断升温的关系的举措。今年2月,美国中央司令部在海湾地区成立了一支特遣部队,利用无人居住的系统进行监视。今年4月,美国宣布在红海成立CTF-153海上特遣部队,旨在监视伊朗及其代理人的活动。在充满挑战的全球经济背景下,该地区实际GDP增长率预计将从2021年的平均4.1%提高到2022年的平均5.0%,不包括黎巴嫩、利比亚和叙利亚。但地区趋势掩盖了2022年油价飙升造成的巨大差异。预计到2022年,石油进口国的增长率将达到4.4%,而石油出口国的增长率为5.2%,海湾合作委员会成员国的增长率为6.5%。财政保守主义仍然影响着2022年的支出决策。
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引用次数: 0
Chapter One: Defence and military analysis 第一章:国防与军事分析
Q3 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-02-14 DOI: 10.1080/04597222.2023.2162713
latest modernisation phase (the ‘New Look’) began in 2008 has not brought the desired outcome. While important vulnerabilities in Russian capabilities have been demonstrated, once Russia resorted to artillery-heavy assaults the gap between expectation and performance was – in relation to Russia’s weapons – perhaps reduced a little. But in other aspects – such as command and control, maintenance, logistics, planning, reconnaissance and soldier training – significant deficiencies soon became apparent. In the first real test of Russian combat power against a peer adversary for decades, the armed forces have so far come up short. Military setbacks and the only incrementallygrowing resources that Russia is committing to the war have meant that there is a growing gap between military realities and Russia’s aims. As of late 2022, though state media control remained tight, and public support ostensibly remained high, some in the Russian security community likely recognised this gap. A crucial issue was whether this was recognised also by President Putin and the military leadership and, if it was, whether they would sustain their intentions or revise goals in line with miltary realities on the ground. If a key objective of the war was to reassert Russian primacy over its ‘near abroad’, it has had the opposite effect. The war has reinforced Ukrainian statehood and galvanised its population and armed forces. The effect of the war on Russia’s periphery has been varied. Belarus has been drawn closer to Moscow and has been complicit in Russia’s actions by offering logistical and material – if not directly physical – support. But in Central Asia, Russia’s grip appeared weaker at the end than at the start of 2022, while its ability to be an effective broker elsewhere, such as between Armenia and Azerbaijan, is in doubt. The effect in Europe has been profound. Russia’s European strategy, as winter deepened, appeared to focus on weakening Western public resolve by cutting gas supplies. This has caused European states to sharpen their attention on resilience and energy security. It has made more important continued Ukrainian military progress in winter 2022–23 – even if this is at a reduced tempo compared to its mid-September Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 is reshaping the security environment in Europe and has ramifications elsewhere. The scale of Moscow’s miscalculation is apparent nearly a year on, but at the outset it was not clear that Russia would face such difficulty. One of the preliminary lessons offered by the war – beyond those for the belligerents – is that defence and intelligence specialists need to sharpen focus on methodologies important to the assessment of military capabilities, and in this case revise how they evaluate Russia’s armed forces. Other early take-aways include those related to the importance of aspects of military capability such as intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR), longer range artillery a
2008年开始的最新现代化阶段(“新面貌”)并没有带来预期的结果。虽然俄罗斯能力的重要弱点已经被证明,但一旦俄罗斯诉诸于重型火炮攻击,就俄罗斯的武器而言,预期与表现之间的差距可能会缩小一点。但是在其他方面,例如指挥和控制、维修、后勤、规划、侦察和士兵训练,重大缺陷很快就显现出来。这是几十年来俄罗斯首次对实力相当的对手进行真正的战斗能力测试,但迄今为止,俄罗斯武装部队的表现还不尽如人意。军事上的挫折和俄罗斯投入战争的唯一逐渐增加的资源意味着军事现实和俄罗斯的目标之间的差距越来越大。截至2022年底,尽管国家媒体控制仍然严格,公众支持率表面上仍然很高,但俄罗斯安全部门的一些人可能意识到了这一差距。一个关键的问题是,普京总统和军方领导层是否也认识到这一点,如果认识到这一点,他们是会维持自己的意图,还是会根据实地的军事现实修改目标。如果说这场战争的一个关键目标是重申俄罗斯对其“近邻”的主导地位,那么它却产生了相反的效果。这场战争巩固了乌克兰的国家地位,激励了乌克兰人民和武装部队。这场战争对俄罗斯周边地区的影响各不相同。白俄罗斯与莫斯科走得更近,并通过提供后勤和物质支持(如果不是直接的物质支持),与俄罗斯串通一气。但在中亚,俄罗斯的控制力在年底似乎比2022年初有所减弱,而它在其他地区(如亚美尼亚和阿塞拜疆之间)充当有效中间人的能力也令人怀疑。这在欧洲产生了深远的影响。随着冬季的加深,俄罗斯的欧洲战略似乎集中在通过削减天然气供应来削弱西方公众的决心上。这促使欧洲国家加强了对弹性和能源安全的关注。俄罗斯在2022 - 23年冬季取得了更重要的持续的乌克兰军事进展——尽管与9月中旬相比,这一进展的速度有所放缓。俄罗斯在2022年2月全面入侵乌克兰,正在重塑欧洲的安全环境,并在其他地方产生影响。近一年来,莫斯科误判的程度显而易见,但一开始并不清楚俄罗斯是否会面临这样的困难。这场战争提供的初步教训之一——除了对交战双方的教训之外——是,国防和情报专家需要更加关注对军事能力评估重要的方法,并在这种情况下修改他们评估俄罗斯武装部队的方式。其他早期的收获包括那些与军事能力的重要性有关的方面,如情报、监视和侦察(ISR)、远程火炮和更好的瞄准,以及训练和士气的重要性。然而,更令人担忧的是民事和军事方面的复原力。与此同时,尽管美国领导了对乌克兰的国际军事支持,而且华盛顿认为俄罗斯是迫在眉睫的威胁,但其长期关注的焦点仍然是它所认为的来自中国的挑战。北京继续加快军队现代化的步伐。俄罗斯战争还为美国武装部队及其国防工业提供了教训,无论是在欧洲的介入,还是在其他地区(包括亚洲)可能发生的突发事件。
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引用次数: 0
Chapter Nine: Sub-Saharan Africa 第九章:撒哈拉以南非洲
Q3 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-02-14 DOI: 10.1080/04597222.2023.2162721
In West Africa, tentative improvements in the region’s security achieved in recent years are now either at risk or are being rolled back. Jihadist activity is again on the rise, notably in Gulf of Guinea countries, while coups and insurrections have highlighted continued problems with civil-military relations. Conflict continued in the Eastern DRC, and in September an agreement was signed enabling the intervention of armed forces from East African Community (EAC) states. An initial force of Kenyan troops landed at Goma in early November; it has been reported that the Kenyan contingent alone could number up to 900. Though a ceasefire was signed between the Ethiopian government and Tigrayan forces at the end of the year, in 2022 Ethiopia more than quadrupled its defence budget from USD0.38bn to USD1.58bn amid the return to conflict with the Tigray People’s Liberation Front. As a result, growth in East African defence spending in 2022 was faster than in other sub-regions. Combined with consistent spending in Tanzania and a 2020 jump in Uganda’s defence budget, this means that the sub-region now accounts for 25.1% of total regional spending, up from 11.0% in 2010. Nigeria’s budget has grown significantly in recent years, from NGN594bn (USD1.83bn) in 2019 to NGN1.14 trillion (USD2.78bn) in 2022, averaging 16% nominal growth between 2020 and 2022. However, the budget has been stagnant in real terms, and accounted for between 0.5% and 0.6% of GDP, well below the regional average of 1.5%. South Africa retains the largest defence budget in sub-Saharan Africa, but the country’s share of regional spending has fallen considerably over the last decade. In 2011, South African spending accounted for 27% of the total for sub-Saharan Africa but this proportion has declined every year since, falling to just 15% in 2022. Two decades of underfunding have left the South African National Defence Force in a parlous state. Nevertheless, it has sustained contingents in the DRC and Mozambique and some border patrols. The air force has faced significant challenges in generating operational capability, but a new support contract for the Gripen has enabled the start of a process to rebuild air combat capability.
在西非,近年来在该区域安全方面取得的初步改善现在不是面临风险,就是正在倒退。圣战活动再次抬头,特别是在几内亚湾国家,而政变和叛乱凸显了军民关系的持续问题。刚果民主共和国东部的冲突仍在继续,9月签署了一项协议,允许东非共同体(EAC)国家的武装部队进行干预。11月初,肯尼亚军队的第一批部队在戈马登陆;据报道,仅肯尼亚特遣队的人数就可能达到900人。虽然埃塞俄比亚政府和提格雷人部队在年底签署了停火协议,但在2022年,由于与提格雷人民解放阵线的冲突,埃塞俄比亚的国防预算从3.8亿美元增加到15.8亿美元,增加了四倍多。因此,2022年东非国防开支的增长速度要快于其他次区域。再加上坦桑尼亚的持续支出和2020年乌干达国防预算的大幅增长,这意味着该次区域目前占该地区总支出的25.1%,高于2010年的11.0%。近年来,尼日利亚的预算大幅增长,从2019年的5940亿尼日利亚克朗(18.3亿美元)增长到2022年的1.14万亿尼日利亚克朗(27.8亿美元),在2020年至2022年期间平均名义增长16%。然而,实际预算一直停滞不前,占GDP的0.5%至0.6%,远低于该地区1.5%的平均水平。南非仍然是撒哈拉以南非洲地区国防预算最大的国家,但在过去十年中,该国在该地区的国防支出份额大幅下降。2011年,南非的医疗支出占撒哈拉以南非洲地区医疗支出总额的27%,但此后这一比例逐年下降,到2022年降至15%。二十年的资金不足使南非国防军处于危险状态。然而,它在刚果民主共和国和莫桑比克维持了特遣队,并进行了一些边境巡逻。美国空军在产生作战能力方面面临着重大挑战,但是一项新的“鹰狮”支持合同已经启动了重建空战能力的过程。
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引用次数: 0
Chapter Three: North America 第三章:北美
Q3 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-02-14 DOI: 10.1080/04597222.2023.2162715
According to the 2022 National Defense Strategy (NDS), released in unclassified form in October, Russia is an ‘acute’ threat but China is the pacing challenge for the Department of Defense. The modernisation of China’s armed forces remains the principal driver of US policy attention and capability development. The US has led the international response to Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine. US officials have played key roles in coordinating defence assistance to Ukraine, and the US has delivered significant stocks, including anti-armour weapons, various air and missile defence systems, and HARM anti-radiation missiles and artillery (particularly HIMARS rocket artillery). The US Army is focused on regenerating its capability for large-scale combat operations under its MultiDomain Operations (MDO) concept. Integrating lessons drawn from Ukraine delayed the official publication of MDO as army doctrine, though the updated document – FM 3-0, Operations – was eventually published in October. The US Navy ‘Navigation Plan’ outlined goals, including 12 nuclear-powered aircraft carriers, 66 tactical submarines, 96 large and 56 small surface combatants, as part of a force design for 373 crewed vessels, plus approximately 150 uninhabited surface and subsurface platforms, to be achieved by 2045. The US Air Force unveiled the Northrop Grumman B-21 Raider bomber in December 2022, but a timeline for the public display of a prototype crewed element of the Next-Generation Air Dominance project remains unclear. The FY2023 DoD budget request prioritises the Pentagon’s plan to build advantage by investing in innovation and modernisation as well as industrial capability. The Pentagon is also looking to improve recruitment and retention, and the FY2023 budget includes a 4.6% pay raise for both military and civilian personnel. Canada and the US agreed to upgrade infrastructure and systems associated with the North American Aerospace Defense Command.
根据10月份以非机密形式发布的2022年国防战略(NDS),俄罗斯是一个“严重”威胁,但中国是国防部的节奏挑战。中国军队的现代化仍然是美国政策关注和能力发展的主要驱动力。美国主导了国际社会对俄罗斯2022年入侵乌克兰的反应。美国官员在协调对乌克兰的国防援助方面发挥了关键作用,美国已经交付了大量库存,包括反装甲武器,各种空中和导弹防御系统,以及HARM反辐射导弹和火炮(特别是HIMARS火箭炮)。美国陆军正致力于在其多域作战(MDO)概念下重建其大规模作战行动的能力。整合从乌克兰吸取的教训推迟了MDO作为陆军学说的正式出版,尽管更新的文件- FM 3-0,作战-最终于10月出版。美国海军“导航计划”概述了目标,包括12艘核动力航空母舰,66艘战术潜艇,96艘大型和56艘小型水面战舰,作为373艘载人船只的力量设计的一部分,加上大约150个无人居住的水面和水下平台,到2045年将实现。美国空军于2022年12月公布了诺斯罗普·格鲁曼公司的B-21“突袭者”轰炸机,但公开展示下一代空中优势项目原型机的时间表仍不清楚。2023财年国防部预算要求优先考虑五角大楼通过投资创新和现代化以及工业能力来建立优势的计划。五角大楼也在寻求改善招聘和保留,2023财年预算包括为军事和文职人员加薪4.6%。加拿大和美国同意升级与北美航空航天防御司令部相关的基础设施和系统。
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引用次数: 0
Chapter Five: Russia and Eurasia 第五章:俄罗斯与欧亚大陆
Q3 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-02-14 DOI: 10.1080/04597222.2023.2162717
Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine failed in its initial objectives and exposed significant shortcomings in several areas of the Russian armed forces, including strategy, command and control, training, logistics and industrial supply. By year’s end, Russia had resorted to using Iranian uninhabited aerial vehicles (UAVs) and direct attack munitions due to the Russian armed forces’ heavy use of its own ballistic and cruise missiles and the continued threat posed by Ukraine’s air defences. The performance of some Russian weapons has been underwhelming. Russia’s tanks and infantry fighting vehicles proved vulnerable to modern antiarmour systems while some air-launched weapons, such as its cruise missiles, were not as successful as they were in Syria. Most notably, the Raduga Kh-101 (RS-AS-23A Kodiak) air-launched cruise missile failed to meet expectations. Russia’s decision to ‘partially’ mobilise shows that the plan to produce a full-time service component, of contractors, failed when confronted with a high-intensity war. The mobilisation process has highlighted institutional and infrastructure shortcomings as well as problems in training. The heavy losses to Russia’s equipment inventory, particularly its armour and artillery, raises significant questions over the direction of Russia’s state armament programme; the country needs to reconstitute its ground forces’ combat capability while they are at war, balancing current needs against existing and future development plans. Both Russia and Ukraine have suffered significant casualties. Ukraine mobilised early, and Western training assistance is intended to produce a steady stream of trained troops, though the training package lasts weeks instead of months. The battlefield successes of Ukraine’s troops have shown the benefits of the training delivered with Western assistance after 2014 and Kyiv’s plan – also with Western assistance – to develop a professional noncommissioned officer cadre. Western materiel support has reshaped Ukraine’s artillery capabilities. But much legacy-equipment remains and ammunition-supply for these will be a key near-term constraint. However, Kyiv’s forces are now able to strike faster and further and have shown the capability to integrate real-time targeting into this process through the use of small UAVs.
俄罗斯对乌克兰的全面入侵未能实现最初的目标,暴露出俄罗斯武装部队在战略、指挥和控制、训练、后勤和工业供应等多个领域存在重大缺陷。到年底,由于俄罗斯武装部队大量使用自己的弹道导弹和巡航导弹,以及乌克兰防空系统持续构成的威胁,俄罗斯已经求助于使用伊朗的无人驾驶飞行器(uav)和直接攻击弹药。一些俄罗斯武器的性能一直不尽如人意。事实证明,俄罗斯的坦克和步兵战车在现代反装甲系统面前不堪一击,而一些空射武器(如巡航导弹)也不像在叙利亚那样成功。最值得注意的是,拉杜加Kh-101 (RS-AS-23A Kodiak)空射巡航导弹未能达到预期。俄罗斯“部分”动员的决定表明,在面对高强度战争时,由承包商提供全职服务的计划失败了。动员过程突出了体制和基础设施的缺点以及培训方面的问题。俄罗斯装备库存(尤其是装甲和火炮)的严重损失,引发了对俄罗斯国家军备计划方向的重大质疑;该国需要在战争中重建其地面部队的作战能力,平衡当前需求与现有和未来发展计划。俄罗斯和乌克兰都遭受了重大伤亡。乌克兰很早就动员起来了,西方的培训援助旨在培养一批训练有素的部队,不过培训计划持续数周,而不是数月。乌克兰军队在战场上取得的成功表明,2014年之后在西方援助下进行的训练,以及基辅在西方援助下培养专业士官干部的计划,都是有好处的。西方的物资支持重塑了乌克兰的炮兵能力。但许多传统装备仍然存在,这些装备的弹药供应将是近期的关键制约因素。然而,基辅的部队现在能够更快、更远地打击,并且已经显示出通过使用小型无人机将实时瞄准整合到这一过程中的能力。
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引用次数: 0
Indexes of Tables, Figures and Maps 表、图和地图索引
Q3 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-02-14 DOI: 10.1080/04597222.2023.2162710
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引用次数: 0
Chapter Six: Asia 第六章:亚洲
Q3 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-02-14 DOI: 10.1080/04597222.2023.2162718
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引用次数: 0
The 2023 Military Balance Chart: Military space assets: China, Russia and the United States 2023年军事平衡图:军事太空资产:中国、俄罗斯和美国
Q3 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-02-14 DOI: 10.1080/04597222.2023.2162729
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引用次数: 0
Index of countries and territories 国家和地区索引
Q3 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-02-14 DOI: 10.1080/04597222.2023.2162726
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引用次数: 0
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The Military Balance
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