Probit Models for Grouped-data Migration Flows: A Theoretical Note

Abstract

In this theoretical note, we propose the GProbit model as an alternative to gravity models to esti-mate grouped-data flows. This is a model based on the random utility theory, which is consistentwith the principle of population behavior. Instead of migrant counts, the dependent variable ofthe GProbit model of flows consists of a number of observed proportions. It allows explaining thepropensity to migrate from any origin to a destination, which is an interesting relative conceptnot affected by the size effect. For this reason, it is expected to have better fit and less problemsof non-normality, as illustrated by an application for the internal migration flows of the Spanishregions.