A Framework to Model the Wind-Induced Losses in Buildings during Hurricanes

Abstract

Wind-induced loss modeling plays a key role in insurance risk management. Hence, a flexible vulnerability framework is to be developed for residential and commercial buildings. This model predicts the losses induced by hurricane wind pressure, wind-borne debris and wind-driven rain. Twenty-five different key variables of the buildings and environment are used as attributes for the simulations. Model results are validated using the Florida Public Hurricane Loss Models (FPHLM) and HAZUS wind vulnerability functions. New contributions include (1) a Markovian roof-aging model to address decreases in roof performance due to aging, and (2) occupancy-specific interior value models based on FEMA Normative quantities for the systematic evaluation of interior value applicable to archetype buildings. A simple wind debris impact model and wind-driven rain intrusion model is also introduced. The influence of the number of stories, roof aging, and window vulnerability resulting in damage are investigated in this article to ensure consistency of the results. The proposed framework enables insurance loss modelers to make judicious choices of input variables based on partial or detailed knowledge about the building to model losses. Future research should focus on validation and calibration using good-quality insurance claims data.