Behavior of the epidemic due to the covid-19 virus in Mexico. Development of an algorithm

Abstract

In the present paper, an algorithm was developed to represent the behavior of the current SARS-CoV-2 virus epidemic in Mexico, known as COVID-19, to obtain a likely scenario for the coming months and provoke a healthy discussion about the problem. The data reported by government entities is considered first by analyzing a simple model, via the construction of a polynomial, and then building an exponential type function, from the so-called logistic function. A numerical comparison is made with the officially provided data, and the graphs obtained from the solutions found are shown, including a brief explanation on how to interpret them appropriately. Finally, the possible scenario for the following months of the development of the epidemic in Mexico is discussed.