Impact of climate change under the RCP8.5 emission scenario on multivariable agroclimatic indices in Western Canada from convection-permitting climate simulation

Abstract

Climate change will impact crop production in Western Canada by modifying growing season conditions. Precipitation pattern changes and warmer temperatures will pose significant risks to crops. Studies have shown that multivariable agroclimatic indices can enhance climatic impact assessment on crop production. This study uses multivariable agroclimatic indices to assess how climate change may impact crop production in western Canada by the end of the 21st century. We use convection-permitting regional climate simulations for the current (CTL) and future climate under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 scenario (RCP8.5) scenario based on the pseudo-global warming (PGW) approach to assess the impact of the climate on growing season indices. CTL and PGW are bias-corrected to the Global Environmental Multiscale (GEM) Canadian Precipitation Analysis (CaPA) (GEM-CaPA) dataset using the multivariate quantile mapping method. Our study analyses Effective Precipitation (Pe), Temperature Humidity Index (THI), and Precipitation Intensity Index (PII) at seasonal and sub-seasonal scales as they apply to cool-season crops. The CTL simulation shows a good performance in reproducing the spatial patterns and the temporal variability of the selected indices in western Canada. Results show that precipitation (Effective Precipitation) will decrease by over 60 mm (40 mm), rainy days will decrease by up to 10 days, and precipitation intensities will increase across western Canada. Warming will lead to THI unit increases of about 3.5 (>5) in the prairies (northeastern parts of western Canada in June). This study’s findings can be useful in generating appropriate information to inform policy on adaptation for sustainable crop production by the end of the 21st century.