Evaluation of polygenic risk scores to differentiate between type 1 and type 2 diabetes

Abstract

Polygenic risk scores (PRS) quantify the genetic liability to disease and are calculated using an individual's genotype profile and disease-specific genome-wide association study (GWAS) summary statistics. Type 1 (T1D) and type 2 (T2D) diabetes both are determined in part by genetic loci. Correctly differentiating between types of diabetes is crucial for accurate diagnosis and treatment. PRS have the potential to address possible misclassification of T1D and T2D. Here we evaluated PRS models for T1D and T2D in European genetic ancestry participants from the UK Biobank (UKB) and then in the Michigan Genomics Initiative (MGI). Specifically, we investigated the utility of T1D and T2D PRS to discriminate between T1D, T2D, and controls in unrelated UKB individuals of European ancestry. We derived PRS models using external non-UKB GWAS. The T1D PRS model with the best discrimination between T1D cases and controls (area under the receiver operator curve [AUC] = 0.805) also yielded the best discrimination of T1D from T2D cases in the UKB (AUC = 0.792) and separation in MGI (AUC = 0.686). In contrast, the best T2D model did not discriminate between T1D and T2D cases (AUC = 0.527). Our analysis suggests that a T1D PRS model based on independent single nucleotide polymorphisms may help differentiate between T1D, T2D, and controls in individuals of European genetic ancestry.