Inverse problem for parameters identification in a modified SIRD epidemic model using ensemble neural networks.

IF 4 3区 生物学 Q1 MATHEMATICAL & COMPUTATIONAL BIOLOGY Biodata Mining Pub Date : 2023-07-18 DOI:10.1186/s13040-023-00337-x
Marian Petrica, Ionel Popescu
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Abstract

In this paper, we propose a parameter identification methodology of the SIRD model, an extension of the classical SIR model, that considers the deceased as a separate category. In addition, our model includes one parameter which is the ratio between the real total number of infected and the number of infected that were documented in the official statistics. Due to many factors, like governmental decisions, several variants circulating, opening and closing of schools, the typical assumption that the parameters of the model stay constant for long periods of time is not realistic. Thus our objective is to create a method which works for short periods of time. In this scope, we approach the estimation relying on the previous 7 days of data and then use the identified parameters to make predictions. To perform the estimation of the parameters we propose the average of an ensemble of neural networks. Each neural network is constructed based on a database built by solving the SIRD for 7 days, with random parameters. In this way, the networks learn the parameters from the solution of the SIRD model. Lastly we use the ensemble to get estimates of the parameters from the real data of Covid19 in Romania and then we illustrate the predictions for different periods of time, from 10 up to 45 days, for the number of deaths. The main goal was to apply this approach on the analysis of COVID-19 evolution in Romania, but this was also exemplified on other countries like Hungary, Czech Republic and Poland with similar results. The results are backed by a theorem which guarantees that we can recover the parameters of the model from the reported data. We believe this methodology can be used as a general tool for dealing with short term predictions of infectious diseases or in other compartmental models.

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基于集成神经网络的改进SIRD流行病模型参数辨识逆问题。
在本文中,我们提出了SIRD模型的参数识别方法,这是经典SIR模型的扩展,将死者视为一个单独的类别。此外,我们的模型还包括一个参数,即实际感染总人数与官方统计中记录的感染人数之间的比率。由于政府决策、多种变量的流通、学校的开办和关闭等因素的影响,模型参数长时间保持不变的典型假设是不现实的。因此,我们的目标是创建一种短时间内有效的方法。在这个范围内,我们依靠前7天的数据接近估计,然后使用识别的参数进行预测。为了对参数进行估计,我们提出了神经网络集合的平均值。每个神经网络都是基于求解7天的SIRD所建立的数据库来构建的,具有随机参数。通过这种方式,网络从SIRD模型的解中学习参数。最后,我们使用集合从罗马尼亚covid - 19的实际数据中获得参数的估计,然后我们说明了不同时期(从10天到45天)对死亡人数的预测。主要目标是将这种方法应用于分析罗马尼亚的COVID-19演变,但匈牙利、捷克共和国和波兰等其他国家也采用了这种方法,取得了类似的结果。结果得到了一个定理的支持,该定理保证了我们可以从报告的数据中恢复模型的参数。我们认为,这种方法可以作为处理传染病短期预测的通用工具或用于其他隔间模型。
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来源期刊
Biodata Mining
Biodata Mining MATHEMATICAL & COMPUTATIONAL BIOLOGY-
CiteScore
7.90
自引率
0.00%
发文量
28
审稿时长
23 weeks
期刊介绍: BioData Mining is an open access, open peer-reviewed journal encompassing research on all aspects of data mining applied to high-dimensional biological and biomedical data, focusing on computational aspects of knowledge discovery from large-scale genetic, transcriptomic, genomic, proteomic, and metabolomic data. Topical areas include, but are not limited to: -Development, evaluation, and application of novel data mining and machine learning algorithms. -Adaptation, evaluation, and application of traditional data mining and machine learning algorithms. -Open-source software for the application of data mining and machine learning algorithms. -Design, development and integration of databases, software and web services for the storage, management, retrieval, and analysis of data from large scale studies. -Pre-processing, post-processing, modeling, and interpretation of data mining and machine learning results for biological interpretation and knowledge discovery.
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