Clinical predictors of early postoperative recurrence after radical esophagectomy for thoracic esophageal cancer.

Purpose: Esophagectomy for esophageal cancer has a high incidence rate of early postoperative recurrence and death. This study aimed to identify the clinical and pathological features in early recurrence cases and to confirm the usefulness of prediction using these factors for effective adjuvant therapy and postoperative surveillance.

Methods: One hundred and twenty five patients who developed postoperative recurrence after undergoing radical esophagectomy for thoracic esophageal cancer were classified into two groups as follows: those with early recurrence at ≤ 6 months and those with nonearly recurrence at > 6 months after surgery. After identifying related factors of early recurrence, usefulness of these factors for prediction were examined in all patients with and without recurrence.

Results: The analysis cohort consisted of 43 and 82 patients in the early and nonearly recurrence groups, respectively. In multivariate analysis, factors associated with early recurrence were higher initial levels of tumor markers (squamous cell carcinoma [SCC] ≥ 1.5 ng/ml in tumors, except for adenocarcinoma, and carcinoembryonic antigen [CEA] ≥ 5.0 ng/ml in adenocarcinoma) and higher venous invasion (v), i.e., ≥ 2 (p = 0.040 and p = 0.004, respectively). The usefulness of these two factors for recurrence prediction was confirmed in 378 patients, including 253 patients without recurrence. Patients with at least one of the two factors had significantly higher early recurrence rates than those without any factors in pStages II and III (odds ratio [OR], 6.333; p = 0016 and OR, 4.346; p = 0.008, respectively).

Conclusions: Early recurrence of thoracic esophageal cancer (i.e., during ≤ 6 months after esophagectomy) was associated with higher initial tumor marker levels and pathological findings of v ≥ 2. The combination of these two factors is useful as a simple and critical predictor of early postoperative recurrence.