Demographic Transition and Population Development in Belarus: Theory and Reality

Abstract The population transition theory provides a macro-level overview where one can see the connection between social and economic development and the progression of population transition. This study conducts a systematic analysis of Belarus’ social development and immigration trends over the last 30 years to investigate the regularities and generalities in its population development. Research has shown that during this period of demographic transition Belarus has characteristics that are different from the demographic transition theory. Belarus’ demographic development is characterized by negative population growth, an imbalance in the sex ratio and an aging demographic structure, all of which are inherent to the period of demographic transition. The demographic transition of Belarus is characterized by the following trends: greater difficulty in changing fertility attitudes, a lack of a stable external environment for population development, the absence of large-scale population outflow, stability with respect to the composition of the main ethnic groups, and the susceptibility of the population to chronic diseases. The solution requires a scientifically-integrated programme for the sustainable development of the population in a stable and orderly socio-economic environment. Future research should focus on the problems of migration within the region and the impact of ethnic, religious and cultural spheres on demographic development.