基于事故自相关分析的煤矿灭火剂选择

E. N. Kosyanova, K. Shchetnev, Olga S. Tarasevich, Lyudmila K. Isaeva
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摘要

目的。本文介绍了俄罗斯联邦不可再生能源生产的设施运行情况。本文从保障这类设施的技术圈和消防安全的问题出发,分析了我国煤矿事故的统计指标。用数学回归方法对分析结果进行了处理。定义所研究的事故动力学序列中存在自相关,从而建立相应序列之间的真关联,即“事故-伤亡”序列之间的关联。煤矿死亡的主要原因不是事故本身,而是事故发生后发生的内源性火灾和突发事件。这就需要发展现代的手段和方法来扑灭煤矿的内生火灾。提出了抑制煤矿内源火灾的灭火剂。方法。作者分析了矿山事故类型的统计数据,以及因这些事故而死亡和受苦的人数。为了确定所研究的一系列煤矿事故动力学中是否存在自相关,采用了回归分析的方法。发现。已经确定,煤矿事故死亡的主要原因不是坍塌和爆炸,而是内源性火灾。由于缺乏对抗这类火灾的手段,需要在这一领域进行进一步的研究。得出了事故死亡原因的结论,并确定了伤亡人数与事故性质的关系。研究应用领域。所得结果可用于开发扑灭煤矿内源火灾的新手段和新方法。结论。在煤矿的火灾中,燃烧导致了显著的氧还原动力学。基于这一事实,我们可以得出结论,矿工在事故中的高死亡率首先是由于预防和扑灭内生火灾的措施不够有效。
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Choosing of fire extinguishing medium in coal mines on the basis of accident autocorrelation analysis
Purpose. The article describes of facility operation with the production of non-renewable energy resources in the Russian Federation. Based on the issues of ensuring technosphere and fire safety at such facilities the article has analyzed statistical indicators of сoal mines accidents in the country. The results of the analysis were processed by the method of mathematical regression. The presence of autocorrelation in the researched series of dynamics of accidents is defined, that allows establishing true connections of the corresponding series, namely the correlation of series "accident - casualties". The main cause of death in coal mines is not the accident itself, but endogenous fires and emergencies occurring after it. This allows speaking of the need to develop modern means and methods of extinguishing endogenous fires in coal mines. Extinguishing medium to suppress endogenous fires in coal mines is proposed. Methods. The authors have analyzed statistical data on the types of accidents in mines and the number of people who died and suffered as a result of these accidents. To determine the presence of autocorrelation in the studied series of dynamics of accidents in coal mines, methods of regression analysis were used. Findings. It has been established that the main cause of death in coal mines accidents is not collapses and explosions, but endogenous fires. The lack of means to combat this type of fires requires further research in this area. Conclusions on the causes of death in accidents have been drawn and dependence of the number of casualties on the accidents nature has been established. Research application field. The results obtained can be used in the development of new means and methods for extinguishing endogenous fires in coal mines. Conclusions. During a fire in a coal mine, combustion leads to a significant dynamics of oxygen reduction. Based on this fact we can conclude that the high death rate of miners in accidents is due, first of all, to insufficiently effective measures to prevent and extinguish endogenous fires.
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