东盟作为最优/非最优货币区

Paweł Merło, Radosław Kułak, Z. Warzocha
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摘要

经济学家至今仍在争论引入社区货币的利弊。很难明确地确定哪一方是正确的。大多数情况下,科学家们提到了所谓的欧元区的例子,但这种解决方案的支持者和反对者之间仍远未达成协议。本文从最优货币区和创建可持续发展区域的其他必要条件的角度,提出了东盟+3(即东盟成员国、中国、韩国和日本)货币一体化的问题。研究人员争论东盟+3是否应该引入单一货币。一些人认为,该集团符合几个亚经合组织理论标准,即劳动力流动性和经济开放度。根据研究结果,东盟+3是一个经济多样化的地区,缺乏在短期内实现有效货币一体化的制度。分析中包含的优化假设决定了在货币区内发展和生存的真正机会。作者的分析表明,东盟+3不应该引入单一货币的原因有三个:未能满足优化标准、社会经济发展多样化、缺乏制度框架和对货币一体化的认识不一致。另一方面,应该指出的是,单一货币可能有助于增加整个东南亚区域的货币安全,这意味着货币一体化可能是一个长期的想法。
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ASEAN as an Optimal/Nonoptimal Currency Area
Economists have been arguing to this day about the benefits and risks of introducing a community currency. It is very difficult to clearly determine which side is right. Most often, scientists refer to the example of the so-called Eurozone, but it is still far from reaching an agreement between supporters and opponents of such a solution. This paper presents the issues of monetary integration in ASEAN+3 (i.e. ASEAN member countries, China, South Korea, and Japan) in terms of the optimal currency area and other necessary conditions for the creation of a sustainable development region. The researchers argue about whether ASEAN+3 should introduce a single currency. Some suggest that the group meets several OCA theory criteria, i.e. labour mobility and economic openness. According to the results of the study, ASEAN+3 is an economically diverse area and there is a lack of institutions enabling effective monetary integration in the short term. Optimization assumptions included in the analysis determine the real chances of development and survival within the currency area. The author's analysis has indicated that ASEAN+3 should not introduce a single currency for three reasons: failure to meet the optimization criteria, diversification of socio-economic development, lack of an institutional framework and inconsistency in the perception of monetary integration. On the other hand, it should be noted that a single currency could contribute to increasing the monetary security of the entire South-East Asian region, which means that the ​​monetary integration may be a long-term idea.
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