中央银行信息沟通与货币政策:理论与证据综述

A. Blinder, Michael Ehrmann, Marcel Fratzscher, J. de Haan, D. Jansen
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引用次数: 1191

摘要

在过去的二十年里,沟通已经成为货币政策中越来越重要的一个方面。这些现实世界的发展催生了大量关于央行沟通的新学术文献——大多是经验主义的,而且几乎都是在这十年里写的。我们调查了这一不断增长的文献。有证据表明,沟通可以成为央行工具中重要而有力的一部分,因为它有能力影响金融市场,提高货币政策决策的可预测性,并有可能帮助实现央行的宏观经济目标。然而,各国央行之间沟通策略的巨大差异表明,尚未就什么是最佳沟通策略达成共识。
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Central Bank Communication and Monetary Policy: A Survey of Theory and Evidence
Over the last two decades, communication has become an increasingly important aspect of monetary policy. These real-world developments have spawned a huge new scholarly literature on central bank communication -- mostly empirical, and almost all of it written in this decade. We survey this ever-growing literature. The evidence suggests that communication can be an important and powerful part of the central bank's toolkit since it has the ability to move financial markets, to enhance the predictability of monetary policy decisions, and potentially to help achieve central banks' macroeconomic objectives. However, the large variation in communication strategies across central banks suggests that a consensus has yet to emerge on what constitutes an optimal communication strategy.
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