基于二元Logit模型的通勤列车模式选择建模

R. Nugraha
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摘要

马来西亚的汽车产量正在急剧增加。这种情况造成了严重的影响,如污染和拥堵。马来西亚政府应该找到适当的解决方案,通过控制车辆来防止车辆增长,并改善公共交通服务。让人们改乘公共交通的唯一方法是提高公共交通系统的效率。为了解决这一问题,必须利用二元logit方法的应用模式选择模型来理解旅行者的行为。为了构建当前和未来情境下的假设选择,采用了陈述偏好法。在调研的基础上,选取了250名受访者作为样本。本研究采用离散选择分析来检验自变量(旅行时间、票价、舒适度和安全性)之间的关系。以旅行目的(学校、工作、休闲活动、购物)为变量,建立模型并检验其效度。结果显示,新列车服务与现有的通勤(KTM)和私家车用户竞争的潜力相当大。这无疑是由于受访者选择良好的服务水平的特点,特别是一个更好的舒适性和安全性与负担得起的价格(票价)。可以得出结论,情景2具有很大的实施潜力,因为预测需求达到90%以上。
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Commuter Train Mode Choice Modelling Using Binary Logit Model
Car production in Malaysia is increase dramatically. This situation created serious impact such as pollution and congestion. The Malaysian government should find a proper solution to prevent the vehicles growth by controlling them and improve public transportation services. The only way to get people switch to pubic transportation is by improving the public transport system becomes more efficient. To find out the solution, an understanding of traveller behavior by apply mode choice model using binary logit approach is necessary. Stated preferences method was adopted in order to construct hypothetical choice in current and future situations. A total of 250 respondents were selected as the sample based on the research study. This research employed a discrete choice analysis to examine the relationship between the independent variables (travel time, fares, comfort and safety). With variation of trip purpose (school, work, leisure activity, and shopping), model has been developed and tested to check the validity. The result shows that the potential of new train services to compete with the current commuter (KTM) and private car user are quite competitive. This is no doubt due to the characteristics of the respondent to choose a good level of services especially a better comfortability and safety with an affordable price (fares). It can be concluded that scenario 2 has great potential to be implemented since forecasting demand reached above 90%.
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