{"title":"基于投资组合风险分析的考虑二氧化碳交易的发电扩建规划","authors":"N. Phuc, C. Marpaung, R. Shrestha","doi":"10.1109/ESD.2010.5598790","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"This paper presents a new generation expansion model that considers the fluctuation of fuel prices and effects of CO2 trading. This model is applied to Viet Nam power sector during 2013–2030. This model finds out the efficient curve containing all feasible technology mixes. Each feasible mix represented by a value of risk-aversion factor has different value of risk, revenue from CO2 trading and present value of total cost (PVTC). The result shows that the higher the PVTC, the lower the volatility of fuel cost and the higher the revenue from CO2 trading. In the case of Viet Nam, if the investor selects high value of risk-aversion factor, renewables, such as solar and win, will become attractive. Furthermore, coal will be the dominant technology that replaces gas and oil.","PeriodicalId":272782,"journal":{"name":"Proceedings of the International Conference on Energy and Sustainable Development: Issues and Strategies (ESD 2010)","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"2010-06-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"3","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Portfolio risk analysis based generation expansion planning considering CO2 trading\",\"authors\":\"N. Phuc, C. Marpaung, R. Shrestha\",\"doi\":\"10.1109/ESD.2010.5598790\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"This paper presents a new generation expansion model that considers the fluctuation of fuel prices and effects of CO2 trading. This model is applied to Viet Nam power sector during 2013–2030. This model finds out the efficient curve containing all feasible technology mixes. Each feasible mix represented by a value of risk-aversion factor has different value of risk, revenue from CO2 trading and present value of total cost (PVTC). The result shows that the higher the PVTC, the lower the volatility of fuel cost and the higher the revenue from CO2 trading. In the case of Viet Nam, if the investor selects high value of risk-aversion factor, renewables, such as solar and win, will become attractive. Furthermore, coal will be the dominant technology that replaces gas and oil.\",\"PeriodicalId\":272782,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Proceedings of the International Conference on Energy and Sustainable Development: Issues and Strategies (ESD 2010)\",\"volume\":\"1 1\",\"pages\":\"0\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":0.0000,\"publicationDate\":\"2010-06-02\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"3\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Proceedings of the International Conference on Energy and Sustainable Development: Issues and Strategies (ESD 2010)\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1109/ESD.2010.5598790\",\"RegionNum\":0,\"RegionCategory\":null,\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"\",\"JCRName\":\"\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Proceedings of the International Conference on Energy and Sustainable Development: Issues and Strategies (ESD 2010)","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1109/ESD.2010.5598790","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"","JCRName":"","Score":null,"Total":0}
Portfolio risk analysis based generation expansion planning considering CO2 trading
This paper presents a new generation expansion model that considers the fluctuation of fuel prices and effects of CO2 trading. This model is applied to Viet Nam power sector during 2013–2030. This model finds out the efficient curve containing all feasible technology mixes. Each feasible mix represented by a value of risk-aversion factor has different value of risk, revenue from CO2 trading and present value of total cost (PVTC). The result shows that the higher the PVTC, the lower the volatility of fuel cost and the higher the revenue from CO2 trading. In the case of Viet Nam, if the investor selects high value of risk-aversion factor, renewables, such as solar and win, will become attractive. Furthermore, coal will be the dominant technology that replaces gas and oil.
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