Scenario Analysis of Threats Posed to Critical Infrastructures by Civilian Drones

Threats posed by civilian drones are becoming an increasing security risk for critical infrastructures as well as events or companies. In order to protect an asset against a drone intrusion a security system is necessary, which in general is described by its capabilities of protection, detection, and intervention. The variety of different threat scenarios posed by drones raises the need for detailed analysis of scenario specific requirements on detection systems. However, there is a lack of comprehensive scenario analyses in the literature that include relevant parameters for detection. Thus, in this paper a scenario analysis is conducted to identify consistent threat scenarios including factors critical for drone detection. The study is based on morphological analysis and applies methods of influence analysis and Cross-Impact Balance analysis. Using these methods, factors that influence the detectability of drones are specified and key factors identified. Potential states of these key factors are determined based on literature reviews or expert interviews. For the assessment of internal consistency of a scenario, a Cross-Impact-Balance analysis is conducted. Exemplarily, the paper shows how a remaining consistent scenario can be applied to derive requirements for a drone detection system or to validate existing systems regarding suitability for feasible threat scenarios.