INDÍCIOS ECONÔMICOS DE CARTEL NA REVENDA DE GLP: O CASO DA OPERAÇÃO “LAISSEZ-FAIRE”

Contextualization: Empirical studies, which aim to detect economic signs of a cartel, have been gaining relevance in the international and national literature. However, there is a gap in the literature of works with applications of this nature, which include the resale of Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG). This segment has characteristics that enable the formation of a cartel and, in recent years, has been the target of complaints and investigations regarding this conduct before competition regulatory bodies. Objective: That said, the objective of the article was to detect economic signs of cartel in the resale of LPG, in Nova Andradina and Dourados, Mato Grosso do Sul, from May 2004 to August 2020. The hypothesis was tested that, during the cartel period, the average price of LPG has increased and its variance has decreased. Methodology: The coefficient of price variation and their respective average values were calculated for the complete period, cartel and post-cartel. Next, the models A utoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (ARCH), Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) and Threshold GARCH, are estimated, all, with the introduction of the dummy cartel variable, as proposed by Bolotova, Connor e Miller (2008). Results: The prices variation coefficients revealed that they were more aligned during the cartel period. The estimated volatility models, in general, allowed us to accept the hypothesis that, during the cartel, there was an increase in the average price of LPG in both municipalities. No decrease in variance in the price of LPG was detected for the city of Dourados-MS. The asymmetry coefficients showed that the series, from both analyzed cities, have impacts of asymmetric shocks on the variance. Conclusion: It is concluded that there are economic signs of cartel in the resale of LPG in the analyzed municipalities.