中国的通货膨胀模型——一个区域视角

Aaron N. Mehrotra, T. Peltonen, Alvaro Santos Rivera
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引用次数: 76

摘要

我们模拟了改革期间中国各省的通货膨胀。我们特别感兴趣的是混合新凯恩斯-菲利普斯曲线(NKPC)捕捉省级通胀过程的能力。该研究强调了通货膨胀形成的差异,并表明NKPC仅对沿海省份的通货膨胀过程提供了合理的描述。一项概率分析表明,在经济市场化程度最高、最有可能经历需求过剩压力的省份,前瞻性通胀因素和产出缺口是重要的通胀驱动因素。这些结果对中国各省货币政策的相对有效性具有启示意义。
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Modelling Inflation in China - A Regional Perspective
We model provincial inflation in China during the reform period. In particular, we are interested in the ability of the hybrid New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) to capture the inflation process at the provincial level. The study highlights differences in inflation formation and shows that the NKPC provides a reasonable description of the inflation process only for the coastal provinces. A probit analysis suggests that the forward-looking inflation component and the output gap are important inflation drivers in provinces that have advanced most in marketisation of the economy and have most likely experienced excess demand pressures. These results have implications for the relative effectiveness of monetary policy across the Chinese provinces.
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