The Fama and French Three-Factor Model in Developing Markets: Evidence from the Chinese Markets (1995-2008)

We study the Fama and French three-factor (FF-3F) model in relation to a developing market. To this end, we consider Chinese stock markets over the period 1995–2008, which is to say, over a period when these markets are recognized as “developing” markets influenced by speculative activity. We find that the model appears to be working as a form of “principal component analysis” for the determinants of stock price formation with book-to-market (B/M) as the “variable of choice” on account of that it captures the earnings-to-price (E/P), cash-flow-to-price (C/P) and sales-to-price (S/P) variables while remaining largely uncorrelated with firm size (whereas E/P, C/P and S/P are themselves positively correlated with firm size). The variables, however, are unrelated to risk as represented by market exposure, volatility, or leverage.