An implication of the incompleteness of contracts is that there are going to be gaps and ambiguities that either side can exploit. We ask whether the expectation that a counterparty is likely to act aggressively in its use of contract language impacts the price that market participants attach to that contract. To do our analysis, we look at how markets price contract terms for the perennial “bad boy” of the sovereign debt markets, the Republic of Argentina. The results are consistent with a market penalty for cheeky contracting.
{"title":"The Price of Cheeky Contracting","authors":"Paolo Colla, Mitu G. Gulati","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3911470","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3911470","url":null,"abstract":"An implication of the incompleteness of contracts is that there are going to be gaps and ambiguities that either side can exploit. We ask whether the expectation that a counterparty is likely to act aggressively in its use of contract language impacts the price that market participants attach to that contract. To do our analysis, we look at how markets price contract terms for the perennial “bad boy” of the sovereign debt markets, the Republic of Argentina. The results are consistent with a market penalty for cheeky contracting.","PeriodicalId":374935,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Global Markets (Topic)","volume":"5 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-08-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123408609","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
What role does polyarchy (and thus increased democracy) play in aiding the development of an international financial centre? Little research has addressed to date. In this paper, we look at that literature in preparation for econometric analysis in the future. The evidence, such as it exists, suggests that some jurisdictions use autocracy (less polyarchy) to help grow out their financial centres. These results could impact decisions ranging from Brexit to Hong Kong’s autonomy in its post-2047 period.
{"title":"What Have We Learned About Political Participation Changing a Financial Centre’s Competitiveness?","authors":"Bryane Michael","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3723209","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3723209","url":null,"abstract":"What role does polyarchy (and thus increased democracy) play in aiding the development of an international financial centre? Little research has addressed to date. In this paper, we look at that literature in preparation for econometric analysis in the future. The evidence, such as it exists, suggests that some jurisdictions use autocracy (less polyarchy) to help grow out their financial centres. These results could impact decisions ranging from Brexit to Hong Kong’s autonomy in its post-2047 period.","PeriodicalId":374935,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Global Markets (Topic)","volume":"15 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-11-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130789205","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Classical, neoclassical and Austrian economists assume that self-interest in exchanges is alone sufficient to make markets work, because of the invisible hand of Adam Smith. This assumption has motivated market deregulation. On the contrary, we argue that Adam Smith was not assuming or explaining that markets always work (or exist). Rather, when markets happen to work apparently through self-interest, Adam Smith was hypothesizing the possible existence of an invisible hand. Similarly, Christians of the Enlightenment who observed the orderly wonders of nature, believed in the invisible hand of God. This paper argues that the invisible hand behind the social order in markets observed by Adam Smith must have a moral dimension in addition to self-interest alone. We suggest that Adam Smith’s philosophy of functioning markets presupposed the influence of morality which economists have overlooked over the centuries, leading to a mistaken conflation of free markets with free-for-all markets. A scientific theory of markets is introduced to describe and classify different functions and types of markets, including market failures or collapses. In particular, we indicate that markets do more than allocate resources – they also distribute the benefits of exchange. This latter function is a social one which makes morality or fairness an essential ingredient in social interactions, as well-functioning markets distribute the benefits of exchange mutually, equitably and sustainably. We provide the rationale for an explicit role for morality in positive economic theory.
{"title":"A Science of Markets: The Moral Dimension of the Invisible Hand","authors":"Wilson N. Sy","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3254087","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3254087","url":null,"abstract":"Classical, neoclassical and Austrian economists assume that self-interest in exchanges is alone sufficient to make markets work, because of the invisible hand of Adam Smith. This assumption has motivated market deregulation. On the contrary, we argue that Adam Smith was not assuming or explaining that markets always work (or exist). Rather, when markets happen to work apparently through self-interest, Adam Smith was hypothesizing the possible existence of an invisible hand. Similarly, Christians of the Enlightenment who observed the orderly wonders of nature, believed in the invisible hand of God. This paper argues that the invisible hand behind the social order in markets observed by Adam Smith must have a moral dimension in addition to self-interest alone. We suggest that Adam Smith’s philosophy of functioning markets presupposed the influence of morality which economists have overlooked over the centuries, leading to a mistaken conflation of free markets with free-for-all markets. A scientific theory of markets is introduced to describe and classify different functions and types of markets, including market failures or collapses. In particular, we indicate that markets do more than allocate resources – they also distribute the benefits of exchange. This latter function is a social one which makes morality or fairness an essential ingredient in social interactions, as well-functioning markets distribute the benefits of exchange mutually, equitably and sustainably. We provide the rationale for an explicit role for morality in positive economic theory.","PeriodicalId":374935,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Global Markets (Topic)","volume":"84 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-09-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116072430","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
espanolEste trabajo analiza el impacto de la crisis financiera global del 2008 en siete mercados accionarios latinoamericanos. Usando diversas tecnicas, se demuestra que los mercados son menos volatiles, mas eficientes, que no hay oportunidades de arbitraje y que los inversionistas prefieren invertir en el periodo posterior a la crisis. Nuestros hallazgos proveen informacion importante para inversionistas y reguladores. EnglishWe analyze the impact of the most recent global financial crisis (GFC) on the seven most important Latin American stock markets. Our mean-variance analysis shows that the markets are significantly less volatile and, in general, investors prefer to invest in the post-GFC period. Our results from the Hurst exponent and runs and variance-ratio tests show that the randomness and efficiency have been improved after the GFC. The stochastic dominance test shows that the markets are efficient, there is no arbitrage opportunity due to the GFC in our studying period, and, in general, investors prefer investing in the post-GFC period. The results confirm that the 2008 global financial crisis does have some positive impacts on Latin American stock markets. Our findings provide important information for investors and market regulators in their decision making in investment and setting regulations.
{"title":"The Impact of the Global Financial Crisis on the Efficiency and Performance of Latin American Stock Markets","authors":"Zhenzhen Zhu, Z. Bai, J. Vieito, W. Wong","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3208090","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3208090","url":null,"abstract":"espanolEste trabajo analiza el impacto de la crisis financiera global del 2008 en siete mercados accionarios latinoamericanos. Usando diversas tecnicas, se demuestra que los mercados son menos volatiles, mas eficientes, que no hay oportunidades de arbitraje y que los inversionistas prefieren invertir en el periodo posterior a la crisis. Nuestros hallazgos proveen informacion importante para inversionistas y reguladores. EnglishWe analyze the impact of the most recent global financial crisis (GFC) on the seven most important Latin American stock markets. Our mean-variance analysis shows that the markets are significantly less volatile and, in general, investors prefer to invest in the post-GFC period. Our results from the Hurst exponent and runs and variance-ratio tests show that the randomness and efficiency have been improved after the GFC. The stochastic dominance test shows that the markets are efficient, there is no arbitrage opportunity due to the GFC in our studying period, and, in general, investors prefer investing in the post-GFC period. The results confirm that the 2008 global financial crisis does have some positive impacts on Latin American stock markets. Our findings provide important information for investors and market regulators in their decision making in investment and setting regulations.","PeriodicalId":374935,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Global Markets (Topic)","volume":"17 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-07-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127873296","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper looks at Amazon as a global corporation and elaborates on how the company manages executive pay, immigration issues and controls sustainable supply chains. When Amazon started as a book store under the leadership of Jeff Bezos, it was unknown that the company would soon expand to such measures. Amazon revolutionized the supply chain with their focus on cost, speed, flexibility, quality, sustainability and innovation. Today, Amazon goes beyond traditional supply chains to design global supply chains that focus on factors beyond cost containment.
{"title":"Sustainable Global Supply Chains at Amazon","authors":"Chenoy Ceil","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3520424","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3520424","url":null,"abstract":"This paper looks at Amazon as a global corporation and elaborates on how the company manages executive pay, immigration issues and controls sustainable supply chains. When Amazon started as a book store under the leadership of Jeff Bezos, it was unknown that the company would soon expand to such measures. Amazon revolutionized the supply chain with their focus on cost, speed, flexibility, quality, sustainability and innovation. Today, Amazon goes beyond traditional supply chains to design global supply chains that focus on factors beyond cost containment.","PeriodicalId":374935,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Global Markets (Topic)","volume":"26 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-06-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125119318","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
We study the Fama and French three-factor (FF-3F) model in relation to a developing market. To this end, we consider Chinese stock markets over the period 1995–2008, which is to say, over a period when these markets are recognized as “developing” markets influenced by speculative activity. We find that the model appears to be working as a form of “principal component analysis” for the determinants of stock price formation with book-to-market (B/M) as the “variable of choice” on account of that it captures the earnings-to-price (E/P), cash-flow-to-price (C/P) and sales-to-price (S/P) variables while remaining largely uncorrelated with firm size (whereas E/P, C/P and S/P are themselves positively correlated with firm size). The variables, however, are unrelated to risk as represented by market exposure, volatility, or leverage.
{"title":"The Fama and French Three-Factor Model in Developing Markets: Evidence from the Chinese Markets (1995-2008)","authors":"Michael J. Dempsey, Manshu Li","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3199633","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3199633","url":null,"abstract":"We study the Fama and French three-factor (FF-3F) model in relation to a developing market. To this end, we consider Chinese stock markets over the period 1995–2008, which is to say, over a period when these markets are recognized as “developing” markets influenced by speculative activity. We find that the model appears to be working as a form of “principal component analysis” for the determinants of stock price formation with book-to-market (B/M) as the “variable of choice” on account of that it captures the earnings-to-price (E/P), cash-flow-to-price (C/P) and sales-to-price (S/P) variables while remaining largely uncorrelated with firm size (whereas E/P, C/P and S/P are themselves positively correlated with firm size). The variables, however, are unrelated to risk as represented by market exposure, volatility, or leverage.","PeriodicalId":374935,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Global Markets (Topic)","volume":"12 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-01-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"117136895","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract This paper is motivated by Bali, Brown, and Tang (2017) who find U.S. economic policy uncertainty (EPU) is priced in the cross-section of U.S. stock returns, and uses weekly data from March 2006 to April 2016 to study whether shocks in U.S. EPU also influence prices of China's A-shares from a market, industry, and individual stock perspective. Our methodology relies on an ARMA (1,1) model to extract shocks in the U.S. EPU series and a GARCH (1,1) model to examine how returns of China's A-shares respond to these shocks after controlling for business conditions proxied by term and credit spread in China. Generally, we find that shocks in U.S. EPU significantly and negatively explain returns of Chinese A-shares with a lag of one week. In addition, the market index containing small and growth stocks is more sensitive to shocks in U.S. EPU than the index containing big and value stocks. Furthermore, we find that firms in manufacturing, information technology, and media industries in China are more sensitive to shocks in U.S. EPU, while firms in agriculture and real estate industries respond less to shocks in U.S. EPU. Finally, China's A-shares which decline more in response to shocks in U.S. EPU have higher returns, smaller market capitalization, weaker operating profitability, higher asset growth, and better past year's cumulative returns. Overall, our findings show that investors in the Chinese A-shares market require a premium to hold stocks that are sensitive to shocks in U.S. economic policy uncertainty.
Bali, Brown, and Tang(2017)发现美国经济政策不确定性(EPU)在美股收益的横截面中被定价，并使用2006年3月至2016年4月的每周数据从市场、行业和个股角度研究美国经济政策不确定性冲击是否也影响中国a股价格。我们的方法依赖于ARMA(1,1)模型来提取美国EPU系列的冲击，以及GARCH(1,1)模型来研究在控制了中国期限和信用利差所代表的商业条件后，中国a股的回报如何应对这些冲击。总体而言，我们发现美国EPU的冲击显著负向解释了中国a股的收益滞后一周。此外，包含小型股和成长股的市场指数比包含大型股和价值股的指数对美国EPU的冲击更敏感。此外，我们发现中国制造业、信息技术和传媒业企业对美国货币政策的冲击更为敏感，而农业和房地产业企业对美国货币政策冲击的反应较小。最后，受美国EPU冲击影响跌幅较大的中国a股，其回报率较高，市值较小，营业盈利能力较弱，资产增长率较高，过去一年的累计回报率较高。总体而言，我们的研究结果表明，中国a股市场的投资者需要溢价来持有对美国经济政策不确定性冲击敏感的股票。
{"title":"Is U.S. Economic Policy Uncertainty Priced in China's A-Shares Market? Evidence from Market, Industry, and Individual Stocks","authors":"Hu Zhijun, Ali M. Kutan, Ping‐Wen Sun","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3118168","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3118168","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This paper is motivated by Bali, Brown, and Tang (2017) who find U.S. economic policy uncertainty (EPU) is priced in the cross-section of U.S. stock returns, and uses weekly data from March 2006 to April 2016 to study whether shocks in U.S. EPU also influence prices of China's A-shares from a market, industry, and individual stock perspective. Our methodology relies on an ARMA (1,1) model to extract shocks in the U.S. EPU series and a GARCH (1,1) model to examine how returns of China's A-shares respond to these shocks after controlling for business conditions proxied by term and credit spread in China. Generally, we find that shocks in U.S. EPU significantly and negatively explain returns of Chinese A-shares with a lag of one week. In addition, the market index containing small and growth stocks is more sensitive to shocks in U.S. EPU than the index containing big and value stocks. Furthermore, we find that firms in manufacturing, information technology, and media industries in China are more sensitive to shocks in U.S. EPU, while firms in agriculture and real estate industries respond less to shocks in U.S. EPU. Finally, China's A-shares which decline more in response to shocks in U.S. EPU have higher returns, smaller market capitalization, weaker operating profitability, higher asset growth, and better past year's cumulative returns. Overall, our findings show that investors in the Chinese A-shares market require a premium to hold stocks that are sensitive to shocks in U.S. economic policy uncertainty.","PeriodicalId":374935,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Global Markets (Topic)","volume":"70 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122036638","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Despues de la crisis reciente, se ha observado una reduccion en los desequilibrios globales de los saldos por cuenta corriente («desequilibrios en terminos de flujo»). Sin embargo, los desequilibrios globales medidos en terminos de los activos externos netos de los paises («desequilibrios en terminos de stock») siguieron aumentando. Este documento estudia si los desequilibrios de stock tienen un impacto estabilizador o desestabilizador en la acumulacion de riqueza externa de los paises. Es decir, ?las economias acreedoras, en virtud de sus tenencias de activos externos, siguen acumulando riqueza?, ?los paises deudores, debido a su posicion de inversion neta negativa, siguen acumulando deuda externa? Nuestros resultados muestran que en las economias deudoras el stock existente de deuda neta ayuda a contener los deficits de cuenta corriente, limitando asi la acumulacion futura de deuda. Sin embargo, en los paises acreedores el stock positivo de activos externos netos contribuye a aumentar los superavits futuros del saldo por cuenta corriente, lo que puede llevar a dinamicas desestabilizadoras en la acumulacion de riqueza. Esta asimetria entre acreedores y deudores se mantiene a pesar del impacto estabilizador que los activos exteriores netos tienen sobre la balanza comercial de los paises acreedores a traves de las fluctuaciones del tipo de cambio real, y podria tener implicaciones relevantes para el comercio y el crecimiento global.
{"title":"Global Imbalances from a Stock Perspective","authors":"Enrique Alberola, Á. Estrada, F. Viani","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3079572","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3079572","url":null,"abstract":"Despues de la crisis reciente, se ha observado una reduccion en los desequilibrios globales de los saldos por cuenta corriente («desequilibrios en terminos de flujo»). Sin embargo, los desequilibrios globales medidos en terminos de los activos externos netos de los paises («desequilibrios en terminos de stock») siguieron aumentando. Este documento estudia si los desequilibrios de stock tienen un impacto estabilizador o desestabilizador en la acumulacion de riqueza externa de los paises. Es decir, ?las economias acreedoras, en virtud de sus tenencias de activos externos, siguen acumulando riqueza?, ?los paises deudores, debido a su posicion de inversion neta negativa, siguen acumulando deuda externa? Nuestros resultados muestran que en las economias deudoras el stock existente de deuda neta ayuda a contener los deficits de cuenta corriente, limitando asi la acumulacion futura de deuda. Sin embargo, en los paises acreedores el stock positivo de activos externos netos contribuye a aumentar los superavits futuros del saldo por cuenta corriente, lo que puede llevar a dinamicas desestabilizadoras en la acumulacion de riqueza. Esta asimetria entre acreedores y deudores se mantiene a pesar del impacto estabilizador que los activos exteriores netos tienen sobre la balanza comercial de los paises acreedores a traves de las fluctuaciones del tipo de cambio real, y podria tener implicaciones relevantes para el comercio y el crecimiento global.","PeriodicalId":374935,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Global Markets (Topic)","volume":"28 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-11-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133276840","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
We study market segmentation effects using data on U.S. railroads that list their bonds in New York and London between 1873 and 1913. This sample provides a unique setting for such analysis because of the precision offered by bond yields in cost of capital estimation, the geography-specific nature of railroad assets, and ongoing substantial technological change. We document a significant reduction in market segmentation over time. While New York bond yields exceeded those in London in the 1870s, this premium disappeared by the early 1900s. However, the segmentation premium persisted in the more remote regions of the United States. Received June 18, 2015; editorial decision October 4, 2017 by Editor Robin Greenwood.
{"title":"Market and Regional Segmentation and Risk Premia in the First Era of Financial Globalization","authors":"D. Chambers, Sergei Sarkissian, Michael J. Schill","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2179088","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2179088","url":null,"abstract":"We study market segmentation effects using data on U.S. railroads that list their bonds in New York and London between 1873 and 1913. This sample provides a unique setting for such analysis because of the precision offered by bond yields in cost of capital estimation, the geography-specific nature of railroad assets, and ongoing substantial technological change. We document a significant reduction in market segmentation over time. While New York bond yields exceeded those in London in the 1870s, this premium disappeared by the early 1900s. However, the segmentation premium persisted in the more remote regions of the United States. Received June 18, 2015; editorial decision October 4, 2017 by Editor Robin Greenwood.","PeriodicalId":374935,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Global Markets (Topic)","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-10-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128911786","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Well established and efficient agricultural commodity futures markets, are expected to perform the role of price discovery and risk management more effectively. The results of the Johansen’s cointegration tests have shown that the spot and futures markets for the 12 agricultural commodities are cointegrated (during the main and sub-periods of study). This suggests that the markets are efficient and the agriculture commodity futures exchanges (CBOT, KCBT, CME, & ICE) provide efficient hedge against price risks emerging in respective commodities. The Granger causality test results show bi-directional flow of information in majority of the commodities during the main as well as the two sub-periods. This shows both the spot and future markets are equally responsible for the price discovery process. However, examination of the F-statistics indicates a strong flow of information from the futures markets to spot markets than the reverse. The unidirectional causal relationships exhibited by commodities such as wheat, soybean, lean hogs and cocoa, imply that the futures markets help discover prices in the spot markets and that the markets are efficient. The causal relationship results suggest that information flow from futures markets to spot markets appears to have increased over the years. This apparent increase in information flows could be attributed to the increase in the relative importance of electronic trading of futures contracts in recent years, which results in more transparent and widely accessible prices. The results meet our three criteria of market efficiency and suggest that there is no need for changes in the existing regulations of the agricultural futures market.
{"title":"Agricultural Commodity Price Hikes Since 2006: Empirical Study on Efficiency of U.S. Futures Market","authors":"Velmurugan Palaniappan Shanmugam, P. Armah","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2975288","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2975288","url":null,"abstract":"Well established and efficient agricultural commodity futures markets, are expected to perform the role of price discovery and risk management more effectively. The results of the Johansen’s cointegration tests have shown that the spot and futures markets for the 12 agricultural commodities are cointegrated (during the main and sub-periods of study). This suggests that the markets are efficient and the agriculture commodity futures exchanges (CBOT, KCBT, CME, & ICE) provide efficient hedge against price risks emerging in respective commodities. The Granger causality test results show bi-directional flow of information in majority of the commodities during the main as well as the two sub-periods. This shows both the spot and future markets are equally responsible for the price discovery process. However, examination of the F-statistics indicates a strong flow of information from the futures markets to spot markets than the reverse. The unidirectional causal relationships exhibited by commodities such as wheat, soybean, lean hogs and cocoa, imply that the futures markets help discover prices in the spot markets and that the markets are efficient. The causal relationship results suggest that information flow from futures markets to spot markets appears to have increased over the years. This apparent increase in information flows could be attributed to the increase in the relative importance of electronic trading of futures contracts in recent years, which results in more transparent and widely accessible prices. The results meet our three criteria of market efficiency and suggest that there is no need for changes in the existing regulations of the agricultural futures market.","PeriodicalId":374935,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Global Markets (Topic)","volume":"5 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-05-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134560178","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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