Probabilistic set-up and the search for probability information in quasi- naturalistic decision tasks

The influence of the probabilistic set-up (i.e., formal aspects of the presented probability information) and of the task domain on the active search for probability information in quasi-natural risky decision tasks was investigated. In each of four tasks (domains: business, medicine, social, epidemic control) 72 subjects chose between a risky alternative and one without risk. There were three conditions in relation to the probabilistic set-up: (a) In the single condition the decision concerned a single case (e.g., one person). In the two multiple conditions (b and c) the decision was for many cases (e.g., 100 persons). In (b) the decision maker had to make an either-or decision (same alternative for all cases). In (c) the subject could assign a proportion of cases to one alternative and the rest to the other one. While the probabilistic set-up had no effect on the search for probabilistic information, the task domain had a strong impact. Risky decision making has been one of the central themes of decision research for decades. Most of the relevant experiments have used and are still using simple lotteries (gambles or bets). In these experiments, the utilities of the consequences and the probabilities of obtaining the consequences are found to be the central