霍布斯时刻

Julio F. Carrión
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摘要

本章回顾了民粹主义领导人一旦掌权,如何试图维护他们的政治主导地位,这总是受到一些社会和机构参与者的挑战,并展示了这一决定性的政治对抗时刻如何决定民粹主义政府的隐秘轨迹。如果民粹主义首席执行官在这一时刻取得成功,一个被强化的高管将出现,选举民主将过渡到一个混合政权;如果他们被击败或受到限制,就可以避免政权更迭的可能性。本章指出了民粹主义领导人在这一拐点上取得胜利的失败或成功的原因所在。关键的允许条件是选民支持激进的制度变革。关键的生产条件是民粹主义领导人有能力利用国家的镇压机器来强加他们的政治意愿。有时还会出现一个额外的生产条件:组织和动员低收入选民来支持民粹主义项目。
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The Hobbesian Moment
This chapter reviews how once in power, populist leaders try to assert their political dominance, which is invariably contested by some societal and institutional actors, and shows how this moment of decisive political confrontation determines the ulterior trajectory of the populist government. If populist chief executives succeed during this moment, an aggrandized executive emerges and electoral democracy will transition to a hybrid regime; if they are defeated or constrained, the possibility of regime change is averted. The chapter identifies the permissive and productive conditions that explain the failure or success of populist leaders in emerging victorious from this inflection point. The key permissive condition is voters’ support for radical institutional change. The key productive condition is the ability of populist leaders to use the state’s repressive apparatus to impose their political will. An additional productive condition is sometimes present: the organization and mobilization of low-income voters to support the populist project.
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