寿命与终身劳动力供给:证据与启示

Moshe Hazan
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引用次数: 170

摘要

传统观点认为,预期寿命的延长在导致人力资本投资增加方面发挥了关键作用。我将退休决策纳入Ben-Porath(1967)模型的一个版本,并发现这种因果关系成立的必要条件是预期寿命的增加也会增加终身劳动力供给。然后,我证明这种情况并不适用于1840年至1970年之间出生的美国男性和1890年至1970年之间出生的美国人口。数据显示西欧也存在类似的模式。最后,我讨论了我的发现对长期增长根本原因辩论的影响。
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Longevity and Lifetime Labor Supply: Evidence and Implications
Conventional wisdom suggests that increased life expectancy had a key role in causing a rise in investment in human capital. I incorporate the retirement decision into a version of Ben-Porath's (1967) model and find that a necessary condition for this causal relationship to hold is that increased life expectancy will also increase lifetime labor supply. I then show that this condition does not hold for American men born between 1840 and 1970 and for the American population born between 1890 and 1970. The data suggest similar patterns in Western Europe. I end by discussing the implications of my findings for the debate on the fundamental causes of long-run growth.
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