COVID-19检测队列设计

Shiliang Cui, Zhongbin Wang, Luyi Yang
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引用次数: 8

摘要

在COVID-19等病毒爆发的情况下,检测是关键。然而,在检测机构排长队往往使人们不愿接受检测。本文研究了检测机构应如何制定计划和定价政策,以激励个人进行检测,以识别最多的感染病例。我们的研究结果如下。首先,在先进先出原则下,免费测试的常见做法吸引了最多的测试对象,但可能无法捕获最多的案例。收取检测费用可能会出人意料地提高病例检出率。其次,尽管有症状的人更有可能携带病毒,但优先考虑这些人而不是无症状的人(另一种常见做法)可能会让更多的病例未被发现,而不是先进先出检测。第三,我们描述了最优调度和定价策略。为了最大限度地发现病例,不需要收取检测费;相反,当检测需求较低时,最好(部分)优先考虑无症状的被检测者,但当检测需求较高时,(部分)优先考虑有症状的个体。
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Design of COVID-19 Testing Queues
In the event of a virus outbreak such as COVID-19, testing is key. However, long waiting lines at testing facilities often discourage individuals from getting tested. This paper studies how testing facilities should set scheduling and pricing policies to incentivize individuals to test, with the goal to identify the most cases of infection. Our findings are as follows. First, under the FIFO discipline, the common practice of making testing free attracts the most testees, but may not catch the most cases. Charging a testing fee may surprisingly improve case detection. Second, even though people who show symptoms are more likely to carry the virus, prioritizing these individuals over asymptomatic ones (another common practice) may let more cases go undetected than FIFO testing does. Third, we characterize the optimal scheduling and pricing policy. To maximize case detection, there is no need to charge a testing fee; instead, it is optimal to give (partial) priority to asymptomatic testees when testing demand is moderately low, but (partially) prioritize individuals with symptoms when testing demand becomes high.
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