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On the Performance of Certainty-equivalent Pricing 论确定性等效定价的绩效
Pub Date : 2021-07-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3502478
Hyun-Soo Ahn, C. Ryan, J. Uichanco, Mengzhenyu Zhang
When underlying demand is uncertain and follows a complex stochastic process, pricing problems are difficult to solve. In such cases, certainty equivalent (CE) policies, based on solving the deterministic relaxation of a stochastic pricing problem, can be used as practical alternatives. CE policies have lighter computational and informational requirements compared to solving the optimal problem. This is particularly true when the firm does not have complete information about the underlying demand distribution.

While the effectiveness of CE pricing policies has been theoretically studied in some settings (e.g, independent demand, continuous price changes), the performance of CE policies are not known in general. This paper analyzes the performance of CE policies in a pricing problem (for a given inventory level) where future demand depends on sales and inventory and the firm has limited opportunities to change price. We show that CE policies are asymptotically optimal: as the problem scale (denoted by m) becomes large, the percentage regret decreases at the rate of O (m^(-1/2)). We also extend the result to the joint pricing and (initial) inventory problem. Our numerical results are even more promising. Even in non-asymptotic settings (small scaling factor and a few price changes), CE policies perform well and often result in revenues that are only a few percentage points lower than optimal.

In addition, we compare the benefit of a closed-loop CE policy over an open-loop CE policy and provide a theoretical comparison between the two policies.
当潜在需求不确定且遵循复杂的随机过程时,定价问题难以解决。在这种情况下,基于解决随机定价问题的确定性松弛的确定性等效(CE)策略可以作为实际的替代方案。与解决最优问题相比,CE策略具有更少的计算和信息需求。当企业没有关于潜在需求分布的完整信息时尤其如此。虽然在某些情况下(例如,独立需求、持续价格变化),已经从理论上研究了产品价格政策的有效性,但总体而言,产品价格政策的绩效尚不清楚。本文分析了一个定价问题(给定库存水平)中CE政策的表现,其中未来需求取决于销售和库存,公司改变价格的机会有限。我们证明CE策略是渐近最优的:随着问题规模(用m表示)变大,后悔百分比以O (m^(-1/2))的速率降低。我们还将结果推广到联合定价和(初始)库存问题。我们的数值结果更有希望。即使在非渐近环境中(比例因子较小,价格变化很少),CE政策也表现良好,通常导致收入仅比最优水平低几个百分点。此外,我们比较了闭环CE策略与开环CE策略的优势,并提供了两种策略之间的理论比较。
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引用次数: 1
Optimal Policies for a Multi-Echelon Inventory Problem with Service Time Target and Expediting 具有服务时间目标和加速的多级库存问题的最优策略
Pub Date : 2021-06-30 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3264204
Xiaobei Shen, Yimin Yu, Jing-Sheng Song
Problem definition: We study the optimal inventory ordering, expediting, and allocation decisions in a multiechelon supply chain over a finite horizon, in which customer orders are quoted with a fixed fulfillment time window, termed the service time target (STT). Academic/practical relevance: Service time target is commonly used as a marketing strategy to increase customer satisfaction and strengthen firms’ competitive edge. However, how to efficiently manage a multistage supply chain to meet the target has received relatively scant attention in the literature. Our study fills this gap. Methodology: We use dynamic programming to characterize the optimal policy. Results: We show that an echelon base stock policy and a rationing policy are optimal for inventory ordering and inventory allocation/expediting, respectively. We also develop a polynomial-time algorithm to compute the optimal policy. To derive these results, we uncover a new functional property named the decomposable of degree 2 property, which is a nontrivial generalization of the celebrated Clark-Scarf decomposition. This property further allows us to derive induced penalty and compensation to coordinate a decentralized serial system with STT and expediting. Managerial implications: Our result provides an efficient decision tool for managing centralized and decentralized serial supply chains with STT and expediting. Our model can be used to quantify the tradeoff between marketing and operational decisions, such as the impact of a marginal reduction in STT on system cost and expedition frequency, as explored in our numerical studies.
问题定义:我们研究在有限范围内多级供应链中的最优库存订购、加速和分配决策,其中客户订单报价具有固定的履行时间窗口,称为服务时间目标(STT)。学术/实践相关性:服务时间目标通常被用作提高顾客满意度和增强企业竞争优势的营销策略。然而,如何有效地管理多阶段供应链以实现目标在文献中受到相对较少的关注。我们的研究填补了这一空白。方法:我们使用动态规划来描述最优策略。结果:梯级基础库存政策和定量配给政策分别是库存订购和库存分配/加速的最优策略。我们还开发了一个多项式时间算法来计算最优策略。为了得到这些结果,我们发现了一个新的函数性质,称为二阶可分解性质,这是著名的Clark-Scarf分解的非平凡推广。该特性进一步允许我们推导诱导惩罚和补偿,以协调具有STT和加速的分散串行系统。管理意义:我们的结果为管理集中式和分散式串行供应链提供了一个有效的决策工具。我们的模型可以用来量化营销和运营决策之间的权衡,例如,在我们的数值研究中,STT的边际减少对系统成本和考察频率的影响。
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引用次数: 2
Robust Epidemiological Prediction and Optimization 稳健流行病学预测与优化
Pub Date : 2021-06-18 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3869521
Chenyi Fu, Melvyn Sim, Minglong Zhou
The COVID-19 pandemic has brought many countries to their knees, and the urgency to return to normalcy has never been greater. Epidemiological models, such as the SEIR compartmental model, are indispensable tools for, among other things, predicting how pandemic may spread over time and how vaccinations and different public health interventions could affect the outcome. However, deterministic epidemiological models do not reflect the stochastic nature of the actual infected populations for which the true distribution can never be determined precisely. When embedded in an optimization model, the impact of ambiguous risk can influence the desired outcomes of the mitigating strategy. To address these issues, we first propose a robust epidemiological model, which provides prediction intervals that is specified by the Aumann and Serrano (2008) riskiness index. With suitable approximations, the robust epidemiological optimization model that minimizes the riskiness index can be formulated as a mixed integer linear optimization problem. We illustrate how we can apply the robust epidemiological optimization model for strategic vaccine allocation by minimizing the model's riskiness indices for all the constraints on limiting infections across all time periods, and within a given budget for vaccinations. We conduct a simulation study using parameters estimated from open-source datasets on the COVID-19 pandemic. Simulation results illustrate that our robust vaccine allocation model yields solutions that outperform the benchmark models in controlling the spread of infections.
COVID-19大流行使许多国家陷入困境,恢复正常的紧迫性从未如此迫切。流行病学模型,如SEIR区隔模型,除其他外,是预测流行病如何随着时间的推移传播以及疫苗接种和不同的公共卫生干预措施如何影响结果的不可或缺的工具。然而,确定性流行病学模型不能反映实际感染人群的随机性质,因为实际感染人群的真实分布永远无法精确确定。当嵌入到优化模型中时,模糊风险的影响可能会影响缓解策略的预期结果。为了解决这些问题,我们首先提出了一个强大的流行病学模型,该模型提供了由Aumann和Serrano(2008)风险指数指定的预测区间。在适当的近似条件下,使风险指数最小的鲁棒流行病学优化模型可表述为一个混合整数线性优化问题。我们说明了如何将鲁棒流行病学优化模型应用于战略性疫苗分配,方法是在给定的疫苗接种预算范围内,在所有时间段限制感染的所有约束条件下,最小化模型的风险指数。我们使用从COVID-19大流行的开源数据集估计的参数进行了模拟研究。仿真结果表明,我们的鲁棒疫苗分配模型在控制感染传播方面优于基准模型。
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引用次数: 2
Strategic Alliances and Lending Relationships 战略联盟和贷款关系
Pub Date : 2021-06-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3861452
U. Khan, Yongzhao (Vincent) Lin, Zhiming Ma, D. Stice
We provide new insights on the value of strategic alliances from a debt financing perspective. We find that firms entering a strategic alliance receive a lower interest spread when they borrow from banks that have previously lent to their strategic partners, compared to loans from other banks. Importantly, this effect varies with the information and accounting environments of borrowing firms. The effect is stronger when a borrower’s transparency and accounting quality is low. We also find that strategic alliances lead borrowers to receive non-price loan term benefits in the form of larger loan amounts and less concentrated loan syndicates. Last, in addition to obtaining more favorable loan terms when dealing with alliance-related banks, we document that borrowers have a higher likelihood of obtaining debt financing from alliance-related banks than from other banks, evidence that strategic alliances are another channel through which lending relationships are formed.
我们从债务融资的角度对战略联盟的价值提供新的见解。我们发现,进入战略联盟的公司从以前向其战略合作伙伴提供贷款的银行借款时,获得的息差比从其他银行借款时获得的息差更低。重要的是,这种影响随借款公司的信息和会计环境而变化。当借款人的透明度和会计质量较低时,这种影响更强。我们还发现,战略联盟导致借款人以更大的贷款金额和更不集中的贷款辛迪加的形式获得非价格贷款期限利益。最后,除了在与联盟相关银行打交道时获得更优惠的贷款条件外,我们还发现借款人从联盟相关银行获得债务融资的可能性高于从其他银行,这表明战略联盟是形成贷款关系的另一渠道。
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引用次数: 0
Role of Production Efficiency: Inventory Leanness and Financial Outcome 生产效率的作用:库存精益和财务结果
Pub Date : 2021-03-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3795386
Mamta Sahare, Saurabh Chandra
The connection between inventory leanness and various dimensions of financial return has been explored in many previous research studies. However, there is still a void in the literature regarding the mechanism that is responsible for the consequences of inventory leanness on the firm’s financial outcome. Thus, the purpose of this work is to study how inventory leanness influences financial outcome, with the focus on the mediation effect of production efficiency. The empirical analysis is performed using a fixed-effect model on firm-level data of various US manufacturing industries from 2000-2018. The result on overall data indicates that the association between inventory leanness (IL) and financial outcome(FO) is partially mediated through enhancement in production efficiency. Further, empirical analysis on each industry-specific subsample reveals that the mediation effect of production efficiency varies across industries. Thus, this article contributes to the theory of inventory control in operations management literature by empirically verifying the mediation effect of production efficiency.
库存精益度与财务回报各维度之间的关系在以往的许多研究中都有探讨。然而,关于库存精益对公司财务结果的影响的机制,文献中仍然存在空白。因此,本研究的目的是研究库存精益度对财务结果的影响,重点研究生产效率的中介作用。本文采用固定效应模型对2000-2018年美国制造业企业层面数据进行实证分析。整体数据的结果表明,库存精益度(IL)与财务结果(FO)之间的关联部分通过生产效率的提高来中介。进一步,对各行业特定子样本的实证分析表明,生产效率的中介效应在不同行业之间存在差异。因此,本文通过实证验证生产效率的中介作用,为运营管理文献中的库存控制理论做出贡献。
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引用次数: 0
Improving University Rankings: Lessons Learned From the Movie 'Moneyball' 提高大学排名:从电影《点球成金》中学到的教训
Pub Date : 2020-12-29 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3677556
M. Quddus, L. Trautman
Can there be a bigger challenge for a dean facing an accreditation visit than deficiencies in faculty scholarship metrics? Given the publication lead-time (sometimes two years between manuscript completion and actually being in print), for many deans, this will be a crisis with no immediate, easy answer. If a school has not previously hired with scholarship metrics in mind and employed strategies to empower faculty to publish, this may be a problem without a comfortable short-term remedy. Internal, organic growth of publication metrics tends not to happen quickly, and not-at-all without communication of it being a priority “at the top.” This topic and case study has profound academic, financial and reputational implications for institutions of higher education everywhere. We live in an age that is obsessed with personal and institutional branding, competition and rankings. In our contemporary culture almost nothing escapes rating by some authority. Cities are rated by unemployment rate, cost of living and climate. Olympic athletes are ranked by appropriate measurements. Professional sports teams are ranked by conference in their quest to win the World Series or Super Bowl. While professional athletes are rated for batting average, runs batted-in, whatever measurement is relevant - almost everything in life that has a value is rated by some metric (s), provided by a credible rating authority. These ratings or rankings are then widely circulated in the regular and social media. They become an important part of the branding efforts and are readily available on the institutional webpage, social media communications and of course on the Internet. This paper contributes to the debate about business school curriculum, rankings, relevance, scholarly impact and value to current and future students. The paper draws lessons from the 2011 movie, Moneyball, based on Michael Lewis’ 2003 bestseller, Moneyball: The Art of Winning an Unfair Game. The book depicts the unlikely success of baseball’s Oakland A’s general manager Billy Beane [played by Brad Pitts] as he attempts to build a Major League championship-winning team in face of competition from teams with much larger salary budget for professional baseball players. Billy Beane out-thinks other team managers by hiring a recent Yale economics graduate (fictional character Peter Brand) and by employing computer-generated statistical analysis (in reality, sabermetrics) to identify and recruit undervalued young players and inexpensive discarded veterans. This paper is based on our experience, perspectives and success working in a College of Business in a mid-size, public university in Texas. However, the challenges we face - limited resources, and working within the bureaucratic framework of a public university - are applicable to many disciplines, programs, and universities. We believe that parallels may be drawn to the plight of less-endowed educational institutions as they seek to stand out in a crowded ma
对于面临认证访问的院长来说,还有比教员奖学金指标不足更大的挑战吗?考虑到出版的前置时间(有时从手稿完成到实际印刷需要两年时间),对许多院长来说,这将是一场没有直接、简单答案的危机。如果一所学校之前没有考虑到奖学金的衡量标准,也没有采取策略授权教师发表文章,这可能是一个没有舒适的短期补救措施的问题。发行指标的内部有机增长往往不会很快发生,如果没有将其作为“高层”的优先事项进行沟通,就根本不可能实现。这一主题和案例研究对世界各地的高等教育机构具有深远的学术、财务和声誉影响。我们生活在一个痴迷于个人和机构品牌、竞争和排名的时代。在我们的当代文化中,几乎没有什么能逃脱某些权威的评价。城市的排名依据是失业率、生活成本和气候。奥林匹克运动员按适当的标准排名。职业运动队在争夺世界大赛或超级碗冠军的过程中,按地区进行排名。虽然职业运动员的得分标准是击球率、跑垒率等任何相关的衡量标准,但生活中几乎所有有价值的东西都是由可靠的评级机构提供的一些指标来评定的。这些评级或排名随后在常规媒体和社交媒体上广泛传播。它们成为品牌推广工作的重要组成部分,可以在机构网页上、社交媒体上、当然还有互联网上随时获得。本文对商学院课程、排名、相关性、学术影响以及对当前和未来学生的价值进行了讨论。2011年的电影《点球成金》改编自迈克尔·刘易斯2003年的畅销书《点球成金:赢得不公平游戏的艺术》。这本书描述了奥克兰运动家棒球队总经理比利·比恩(布拉德·皮茨饰演)在面对职业棒球运动员薪水预算高得多的球队的竞争时,试图建立一支美国职业棒球大联盟冠军球队的不太可能的成功。比利·比恩(Billy Beane)比其他球队经理更聪明,他聘请了耶鲁大学(Yale)经济学专业的应届毕业生(虚构人物彼得·布兰德(Peter Brand)),并利用计算机生成的统计分析(实际上是sabermetrics)来识别和招募被低估的年轻球员和廉价的退役老兵。本文是基于我们在德克萨斯州一所中等规模的公立大学的商学院工作的经验、观点和成功。然而,我们面临的挑战——有限的资源,以及在公立大学的官僚框架内工作——适用于许多学科、项目和大学。我们认为,尽管与规模更大、更富有的学院和大学相比,资源相对匮乏,但资金较少的教育机构在寻求在拥挤的市场中脱颖而出,并通过创造性策略脱颖而出时,可能会遇到类似的困境。
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引用次数: 1
Assign-to-Seat: Dynamic Capacity Control for Selling High-Speed Train Tickets 座位分配:高速列车售票的动态容量控制
Pub Date : 2020-10-23 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3477339
Feng Zhu, Shaoxuan Liu, Rowan Wang, Zizhuo Wang
Problem definition: We consider a revenue management problem that arises from the selling of high-speed train tickets in China. Compared with traditional network revenue management problems, the new feature of our problem is the assign-to-seat restriction. That is, each request, if accepted, must be assigned instantly to a single seat throughout the whole journey, and later adjustment is not allowed. When making decisions, the seller needs to track not only the total seat capacity available, but also the status of each seat. Methodology/results: We build a modified network revenue management model for this problem. First, we study a static problem in which all requests are given. Although the problem is NP-hard in general, we identify conditions for solvability in polynomial time and propose efficient approximation algorithms for general cases. We then introduce a bid-price control policy based on a novel maximal sequence principle. This policy accommodates nonlinearity in bid prices and, as a result, yields a more accurate approximation of the value function than a traditional bid-price control policy does. Finally, we combine a dynamic view of the maximal sequence with the static solution of a primal problem to propose a “re-solving a dynamic primal” policy that can achieve uniformly bounded revenue loss under mild assumptions. Numerical experiments using both synthetic and real data document the advantage of our proposed policies on resource-allocation efficiency. Managerial implications: The results of this study reveal connections between our problem and traditional network revenue management problems. Particularly, we demonstrate that by adaptively using our proposed methods, the impact of the assign-to-seat restriction becomes limited both in theory and practice. Funding: S. Liu’s research is partly supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC) [Grant NSFC-72072117]. Z. Wang’s research is partly supported by the NSFC [Grant NSFC-72150002]. Supplemental Material: The online appendix is available at https://doi.org/10.1287/msom.2023.1188 .
问题定义:我们考虑一个来自中国高铁车票销售的收入管理问题。与传统的网络收益管理问题相比,我们的问题的新特点是席位分配限制。也就是说,每个请求,如果被接受,必须在整个旅程中立即分配到一个座位,并且不允许稍后进行调整。在做出决定时,卖方不仅需要跟踪可用的总座位容量,还需要跟踪每个座位的状态。方法/结果:针对这个问题,我们建立了一个改进的网络收益管理模型。首先,我们研究了一个静态问题,其中所有的请求都是给定的。虽然问题一般来说是np困难的,但我们确定了多项式时间内可解的条件,并提出了一般情况下有效的近似算法。然后,我们引入了一种新的基于最大序列原理的投标价格控制策略。该政策适应了投标价格的非线性,因此,比传统的投标价格控制政策更准确地近似于价值函数。最后,我们将最大序列的动态视图与原始问题的静态解相结合,提出了在温和假设下可以实现一致有界收入损失的“重新求解动态原始”策略。利用合成数据和实际数据进行的数值实验证明了我们提出的策略在资源配置效率方面的优势。管理启示:本研究的结果揭示了我们的问题与传统网络收益管理问题之间的联系。特别地,我们证明了通过自适应地使用我们提出的方法,分配座位限制的影响在理论和实践中都是有限的。基金资助:刘s . Liu的研究部分得到国家自然科学基金资助[Grant NSFC-72072117]。王忠的研究得到了国家自然科学基金委的部分资助[Grant NSFC-72150002]。补充材料:在线附录可在https://doi.org/10.1287/msom.2023.1188上获得。
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引用次数: 0
Optimal Recycling Strategies with the Name-Your-Own-Price Mechanism 定价机制下的最优回收策略
Pub Date : 2020-10-19 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3714610
G. Cai, Jianbin Li, Qifei Wang, Stuart X. Zhu
Recycling and remanufacturing have emerged as a key instrument in pursuit of environment-friendly sustainability in the society. Using game-theoretic approaches, this article investigates the optimal pricing and remanufacturing strategies of an original equipment manufacturer (OEM) in recycling used products by either itself or a third-party (TP) under the name-your-own-price (NYOP) mechanism. Our analysis demonstrates that either the OEM recycling or the TP recycling can outperform the other in terms of firms’ profits, consumer utility, and environmental impact. However, there exists a conflicting zone, in which the TP recycling is more profitable for the firms, but the OEM recycling leads to more consumer utility and less environmental impact. Comparing the NYOP mechanism to the list-price mechanism reveals that the OEM conditionally prefers the NYOP mechanism to the list-price mechanism; however, the OEM and the TP may encounter another preference confliction, in which the OEM prefers the NYOP whereas the TP prefers the list-price. The firms’ preference for NYOP dwindles as the used-product seller’s belief of the NYOP reserve price grows. Enabling haggling in NYOP does not always enhance the firms’ profits, consumer utility, and environment-friendly level.
回收和再制造已经成为社会追求环境友好型可持续发展的重要手段。本文运用博弈论方法,研究了原始设备制造商(OEM)在自行定价(NYOP)机制下自行或第三方回收废旧产品时的最优定价和再制造策略。我们的分析表明,无论是OEM回收还是TP回收,在企业利润、消费者效用和环境影响方面都优于对方。然而,存在一个冲突区,在这个冲突区中,TP回收对企业来说更有利可图,但OEM回收导致更多的消费者效用和更小的环境影响。对比NYOP机制和标价机制,OEM有条件地倾向于NYOP机制而不是标价机制;然而,OEM和TP可能会遇到另一个偏好冲突,其中OEM更喜欢NYOP,而TP更喜欢标价。公司对NYOP的偏好随着二手产品卖家对NYOP保留价格的信念的增加而减少。在NYOP中允许讨价还价并不一定能提高企业利润、消费者效用和环境友好水平。
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引用次数: 2
Design of COVID-19 Testing Queues COVID-19检测队列设计
Pub Date : 2020-10-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3722022
Shiliang Cui, Zhongbin Wang, Luyi Yang
In the event of a virus outbreak such as COVID-19, testing is key. However, long waiting lines at testing facilities often discourage individuals from getting tested. This paper studies how testing facilities should set scheduling and pricing policies to incentivize individuals to test, with the goal to identify the most cases of infection. Our findings are as follows. First, under the FIFO discipline, the common practice of making testing free attracts the most testees, but may not catch the most cases. Charging a testing fee may surprisingly improve case detection. Second, even though people who show symptoms are more likely to carry the virus, prioritizing these individuals over asymptomatic ones (another common practice) may let more cases go undetected than FIFO testing does. Third, we characterize the optimal scheduling and pricing policy. To maximize case detection, there is no need to charge a testing fee; instead, it is optimal to give (partial) priority to asymptomatic testees when testing demand is moderately low, but (partially) prioritize individuals with symptoms when testing demand becomes high.
在COVID-19等病毒爆发的情况下,检测是关键。然而,在检测机构排长队往往使人们不愿接受检测。本文研究了检测机构应如何制定计划和定价政策,以激励个人进行检测,以识别最多的感染病例。我们的研究结果如下。首先,在先进先出原则下,免费测试的常见做法吸引了最多的测试对象,但可能无法捕获最多的案例。收取检测费用可能会出人意料地提高病例检出率。其次,尽管有症状的人更有可能携带病毒,但优先考虑这些人而不是无症状的人(另一种常见做法)可能会让更多的病例未被发现,而不是先进先出检测。第三,我们描述了最优调度和定价策略。为了最大限度地发现病例,不需要收取检测费;相反,当检测需求较低时,最好(部分)优先考虑无症状的被检测者,但当检测需求较高时,(部分)优先考虑有症状的个体。
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引用次数: 8
Active Risk Constraints for Regression Based Index Tracking 基于回归的指数跟踪的主动风险约束
Pub Date : 2020-09-26 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3700083
Simon du Plooy
Regression based index tracking selects tracking portfolios based on the linear regression characteristics of the available assets. The approach is suited to Mixed Integer Linear Programs where the number of assets in the tracking portfolio is limited compared to the number of constituents in the benchmark portfolio. Current approaches do not account for the active risk of the tracking portfolio, resulting in concentrated portfolios with high tracking error. This paper considers two extensions, both a linear and quadratic formulation, to the current approaches. The resulting portfolios are more diversified, have lower tracking error and tracking difference, and have appropriate levels of beta.
基于回归的指数跟踪是根据可用资产的线性回归特征选择跟踪组合。该方法适用于混合整数线性规划,其中跟踪投资组合中的资产数量与基准投资组合中的成分数量相比是有限的。目前的方法没有考虑跟踪投资组合的主动风险,导致集中的投资组合具有很高的跟踪误差。本文考虑了对现有方法的两种扩展,即线性和二次公式。由此产生的投资组合更加多样化,跟踪误差和跟踪差更小,并且具有适当的beta水平。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
Operations Research eJournal
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