金融中介与经济增长:来自尼泊尔的证据

B. N. Shah, Md. Iqbal Bhuyan, Sungsin Kim, Rukshana Salam
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摘要

目的-本研究旨在利用1974年至2019年期间的时间序列数据调查金融中介在尼泊尔经济增长中的作用。为了建立这种关系,人均GDP被用作经济增长的代理指标,而私营部门信贷、商业银行资产和广义货币供应量被用作金融中介的代理指标。设计/方法/方法-为了获得实证结果,采用协整的约翰森检验、向量误差修正模型和格兰杰因果关系检验。研究结果-研究结果支持尼泊尔金融主导的增长,这意味着金融中介与长期经济增长呈正相关。在短期内观察到与总贸易的正相关,但在长期内发现了负相关。格兰杰因果检验表明,广义货币供应量和商业银行资产与尼泊尔经济增长呈双向关系,而私营部门信贷与尼泊尔经济增长呈单向关系。研究意义-研究结果表明,如果中央银行当局优先考虑货币政策工具,它可能会促进尼泊尔短期和长期的经济增长。此外,为了尼泊尔经济的持续增长,应该通过采用更自由的政策来改革银行部门。该研究还建议,政策制定者应立即采取行动,纠正尼泊尔对外贸易的方向。
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Financial Intermediation and Economic Growth: Evidence from Nepal
Purpose - This study aims to investigate the role of financial intermediation in Nepalese economic growth using time-series data over the period from 1974 to 2019. In order to establish the relationship, GDP per capita is used as a proxy for economic growth, while private sector credit, commercial bank assets, and the broad money supply serve as proxy measures of financial intermediation. Design/Methodology/Approach - To obtain empirical results, the Johansen test of co-integration, the vector error correction model, and the Granger causality test are applied. Findings - The results support finance-led growth in Nepal, implying that financial intermediation is positively associated with economic growth in the long run. A positive association with total trade was observed in the short run, but a negative effect was found in the long run. Granger causality tests indicate that the broad money supply and commercial bank assets are bidirectionally related to Nepal’s economic growth, while private sector credit is unidirectional. Research Implications - The findings suggest that if central bank authorities prioritized monetary policy tools, it may foster economic growth in Nepal in both the short- and long terms. In addition, for the persistent growth of the Nepalese economy, the banking sector should be reformed by employing more liberal policies. The study also suggests that policymakers should take immediate action to correct the direction of Nepalese foreign trade.
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